Corn prices in Ukraine have reached the level of food wheat prices

Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise, despite the stabilization of wheat prices and the decline in corn quotes on world exchanges.

During the week, export prices for corn in Black Sea ports increased by $2–3/t to $233–236/t or UAH 10,900–11,000/t, but traders paid a higher price for large volumes and fast delivery.

Farmers are actively sowing spring crops, so they practically do not sell, which leads to a shortage of corn on the market.

Corn exports from Ukraine for April 1-17 amounted to only 741 thousand tons (3.3 times less than for the same period in 2024), and in total for the season reached 17.72 million tons (19.5% less than 21.167 million tons on the same date last year) out of the projected 22 million tons. Let us recall that the maximum demand for Ukrainian corn is observed in February – May, and then corn from South America enters the market.

Corn exports from the US for the week of April 11-17 decreased by 7% to 1.7 million tons, and in total in the MY 2024/25 amounted to 39.22 million tons, which is 27% ahead of last year’s pace.

May corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago fell 1.3% yesterday to $187.3/t (-1.2% for the week), but are trading at a high level on hopes for the abolition of tariffs and acceleration of negotiations with China.

According to the USDA crop report, as of April 20, 12% of the planned area was sown with corn in the United States, which is 2% higher than the 5-year average (10%).

On the Euronext exchange in Paris, June corn futures fell 0.5% to €203.5/t or $232/t (-5.3% month-on-month) on the back of high wheat and corn inventories and weaker demand from processors.

Corn imports to the EU increased by 14% compared to the previous year to 16.5 million tons, with the share of supplies from Ukraine increasing from 57% to 67%, and from the USA decreasing from 21% to 1% due to an increase in supplies from Brazil from 10% to 19%.

Falling corn prices in the EU are putting pressure on prices in Ukraine, so falling demand prices in Turkey could cause prices in Ukraine to collapse in May, especially when farmers return to sales and weather conditions for sowing in the US and EU remain as favorable.

Growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina have improved, prompting local analysts to raise their forecasts. Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised Brazil’s corn crop forecast by 3 million tonnes to 125 million tonnes (USDA 126 million tonnes) and Argentina’s by 2 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes (USDA 50 million tonnes).