Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to producers' sales restraint

Prolonged frosts complicate auto logistics and inhibit sales by farmers who are waiting for more favorable conditions for grain sales and shipments, which leads to a further increase in demand prices at ports.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $2-3/t to $207-211/t or UAH 10,200-10,250/t with delivery to Black Sea ports during the week due to a rather low supply from farmers.

In Ukraine, about 8% of the corn crop remains unharvested, so farmers expect prices to rise due to the crop shortfall. However, 29 million tons of grain have already been threshed, which exceeds last year’s harvest of 26.8 million tons.

In January, Ukraine exported 2.9 million tons of corn, of which 625 thousand tons went to Turkey, 606 thousand tons to Italy, 280 thousand tons to Spain, 239 thousand tons to Egypt, and 229 thousand tons to Tunisia. However, in total, only 8.8 million tons were exported during the season (compared to 12.86 million tons last year) out of the 23 million tons projected for the MY 2025/26 (20 million tons in the MY 2024/25).

March corn futures in Chicago have been trading at $168/t for two weeks now (-3.5% per month) and have not yet responded to the high export rates and statements about a possible increase in supplies to China and India.

In the MY 2025/26 (as of January 30), the US exported 32.6 million tons, which is 50% higher than last year’s pace, although the export forecast for this season has been increased compared to the previous one from 72.6 to 81 million tons.

According to AgRural, in Brazil, the first crop of corn has been harvested on 10% of the area (14% last year), and the second crop has already been sown on 13% of the area (9% last year). Analysts are again raising their corn and soybean crop forecasts.

In Argentina, only 46% of the corn crop is in good condition at the end of January due to drought, compared to 82% in December, which is why analysts are lowering harvest forecasts. Rains are expected this week, which will reduce stress on the crops and speculative pressure on quotes.

According to market operators, the South Korean company Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 134 thousand tons (out of the planned 207 thousand tons) of feed corn originating from the USA, South Africa or South American countries at an international tender on February 3 for delivery by June 10, 2026 at prices of $242.94-243.99/ton C&F (+$1.5/ton for unloading at the port), which are $6-7/ton lower than they were in January, so Ukrainian farmers should not count on an increase in corn prices in the spring.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices