Corn prices in Ukraine are rising, but competition with Argentine grain is intensifying
In Ukraine, against the backdrop of seasonally increasing demand for corn, there is a slight increase in export purchase prices.
The 60% increase in oil prices amid the war with Iran has not yet affected corn prices, as demand for bioethanol has even declined due to the sharp increase in fuel prices and reduced physical demand at gas stations. But if oil prices remain high for several more months, the prices of fertilizers and all agricultural crops will also increase.
May corn futures in Chicago fell 2.2% during the week to $178/t (+2.7% since the start of the war) on forecasts of an increase in corn planting areas in the US in 2026 compared to previous estimates.
Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $1-2/t per week to $214-215/t or UAH 10,700-10,800/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and supply volumes are sufficient to cover export demand.
In March, Ukraine exported 2.7 million tons of corn, which is 19% higher than in March 2025, although in the 2025/26 MY, 14.26 million tons of corn were exported, which is 18% lower than the pace of the previous season (16.85 million tons). By the end of the season, another 7-8 million tons need to be exported to reach the forecast of 22 million tons (20 million tons in MY 2024/25).
In Argentina, as of March 27, corn has been threshed on 15% of the area (5% last year), and a wave of precipitation is improving the condition of late corn crops, so harvest forecasts remain at 52-62 million tons compared to 50 million tons in the previous season.
Offer prices for Argentine corn for delivery in March decreased to $200-210/t FOB Up River, and for American corn – to $210-215/t FOB, while prices for Ukrainian corn increased to $230-235/t FOB.
US stock exchanges will be closed on Friday for Good Friday, and on Monday the country will celebrate Easter, so no significant changes in quotes should be expected in the coming days.
The weather in Brazil is conducive to the development of second-crop corn crops, but to obtain a good harvest, it is very important that the maximum amount of precipitation falls in April, so the weather factor will significantly affect prices in May and June.
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