Corn prices in Ukraine are rising amid delayed harvest and speculative increases in stock market quotes

The intensity of precipitation in Ukraine has decreased, but the lack of heat continues to slow down the drying of corn. Due to high humidity, corn has now been threshed on half the area compared to a year ago. This disrupts plans for deliveries to the port under previously concluded contracts, so traders are forced to raise purchase prices to accumulate the necessary batches for export.

As of October 23, 7.713 million tons of corn were threshed in Ukraine from 31% of the area (+10% per week) or 1.315 million hectares with a yield of 5.87 tons/hectare, although last year at this time 15.4 million tons were threshed from 67% of the area with a yield of 5.72 tons/hectare.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by 100-150 UAH/t during the week to 9650-9700 UAH/t ($202-205/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports, which was also facilitated by the 0.9% increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia.

Farmers are reluctant to sell corn because they are busy harvesting and also expect further price increases, so they prefer to sell sunflower at high prices.

Speculative growth in corn quotes in the US also gives hope for a recovery in prices after falling to a 5-year low. December corn futures in Chicago rose 2.9% during the week to $170/t (-5.1% in two weeks) on expectations of a meeting between the leaders of the US and China on October 30 and the possible signing of a trade agreement between the countries that would resume soybean and corn exports from the US to China.

Due to the shutdown, the USDA is not publishing harvest progress reports, but according to estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters, as of October 27, corn in the US had been harvested on 72% of the area (81% last year).

Active corn exports from Brazil, against the backdrop of corn supplies from the USA and Ukraine, are increasing competition on the world market and putting pressure on prices. According to ANEC, corn exports from Brazil in October will amount to 6.19 million tons. At the same time, Ukraine exported only 356 thousand tons of grain in 22 days of October.

According to market operators, the South Korean company Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 204 thousand tons of feed corn produced in the USA, South Africa or South American countries at an international tender on October 28 at a price of $243.98/ton C&F with delivery on February 5-15, 2026. To be competitive at this price level, Ukrainian corn should cost about $190-195/ton with delivery to the port.

Weather forecasts in the US “corn belt” and Ukraine promise warm, dry weather for the next 7-10 days. This will speed up harvesting and increase supply on the market, which will increase pressure on prices, so farmers need to take advantage of the small price increase and accelerate sales.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices