Corn prices at Ukrainian grain silos have dropped sharply

Adverse weather conditions for corn harvesting, high grain humidity, limited silo capacities for drying and receiving, as well as a sharp increase in the cost of delivery to ports led to a significant decrease in corn prices at domestic silos in Ukraine.

Additional pressure was brought by threats from the Russian Federation to intensify attacks on Ukrainian ports and vessels in order to block exports, which led to an increase in insurance and freight rates from Ukrainian ports.

As of November 28, 22.486 million tons of corn have been threshed from 3.31 million hectares or 75% of the area in Ukraine, with a yield of 6.79 tons/hectare. According to meteorologists, frost and dry weather are expected next week, which will allow for a slight reduction in grain moisture (which reaches 25-35%) and completion of the harvest.

The cost of transporting grain from domestic silos to ports increased by 400-1000 UAH/t to 1400-2000 UAH/t against the backdrop of an increase in grain supply and a shortage of vehicles, so traders sharply reduced purchase prices at silos to levels of 8200-8600 UAH/t.

In Ukrainian ports, export demand prices for corn fell by 50-150 UAH/t per week to 9850-9900 UAH/t or $206-207/t with delivery in December to Black Sea ports.

The pace of corn exports from Ukraine remains low, and since the beginning of the 2025/26 season, only 3.88 million tons of grain have been exported compared to 7.6 million tons last year.

December corn futures in Chicago rose 1.1% to $172/t (0.5% month-on-month) over the week, supported by a possible export restriction from Ukraine, but overall remain under pressure from fundamental factors of increasing global wheat and corn supply.

According to ANEC forecasts, Brazil will export 5 million tons of corn in December, compared to 5 million tons in November and 3.6 million tons in December 2024, which will increase competition with corn from the United States and Ukraine.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices