Corn Futures Gain Amidst Trade Concerns In Agriculture

As corn futures continue to show strong gains this March, agricultural experts are closely monitoring the trends in export sales and production projections. On March 21, 2025, corn futures reflected improvements of 4 to 6 cents in the nearbys, with new crop corn up 1.5 cents.

The CmdtyView national average cash corn price saw a rise of 3.5 cents, reaching $4.25 1/2 per bushel. These numbers follow a noteworthy report from earlier that day which disclosed 1.497 million metric tons (MMT) in bookings of old crop corn sales for the week ending March 13. This figure represents a four-week high and is notably 26.2% higher than sales during the same week last year.

Among the most significant buyers, Japan led the way with 487,700 MT, while South Korea imported 397,200 MT and Mexico purchased 303,700 MT. However, the report also noted that unknown destinations canceled 383,600 MT, largely switching these amounts back to Japan (198,000 MT) and South Korea (194,000 MT).

In terms of projections for the future, the International Grains Council revealed on March 19 that they had increased their 2024/25 world corn production estimate by 1 MMT but had trimmed the carryout projection by the same amount to 274 MMT. Their initial forecast for 2025/26 indicates a 52 MMT rise in production year-on-year, with projected stocks reaching 280 MMT.

Current prices for corn futures include May 2025 corn at $4.67 1/4, reflecting a rise of 5 1/4 cents; nearby cash at $4.31, also up by 5 1/4 cents; July 2025 corn at $4.74, up 4 3/4 cents; and December 2025 corn at $4.53, increasing by 1 1/2 cents. The new crop cash price currently sits at $4.16, climbing 1 3/4 cents.

These trends in corn prices and export activity reflect broader changes within the agricultural sector, which is facing challenges from increased imports, shifting trade dynamics, and pressures from past trade disputes. For instance, on the global stage, the competitive environment for American agricultural goods has sparked debates concerning tariffs and market access.

Recently, data revealed that in 2024, the United States imported a record-high $263 billion in agricultural products while exporting $191 billion, a decrease from the previous year’s figure of $213 billion. This growing gap highlights the challenges U.S. producers face in an increasingly competitive global market. Agricultural economists contend that these trends pose risks as imports continue to exceed exports.

Canada and Mexico remain the primary trading partners for U.S. agricultural goods, collectively accounting for a third of U.S. exports and supplying 40% of total imports. In contrast, China emerged as a significant destination for U.S. exports with 14% of the total share last year, alongside Japan at 7%. On the imports side, Brazil and China rank as the U.S.’s third and fourth largest suppliers.

Consumer-oriented goods have become increasingly dominant in agricultural trade, with these products representing 42% of exports and 54% of imports by value over the past three years. This category includes a variety of items from meat and dairy to fruits, vegetables, and alcoholic beverages. The sector remains particularly sensitive to shifting trade dynamics, as consumers’ demand may be quickly influenced by external factors like tariffs and trade policies.

In a contrasting narrative, U.S. bulk commodities—such as soybeans and corn—form a foundational part of agricultural exports but make up just 6% of U.S. imports. Bulk commodities, while critical for exports, also face challenges from international dynamics. For example, China recently instituted additional tariffs on $21 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, significantly impacting market conditions.

This new layer of tariffs reflects broader tensions that agricultural producers contend with as trade disputes can influence pricing and market access. For instance, fresh produce imports in the U.S. have risen dramatically, now accounting for approximately 60% of domestic availability, up from 30% in the 1980s. The U.S. exported $7.7 billion in fresh fruits and vegetables last year, yet imports soared to $33 billion.

Notably, 27% of these fresh fruit and vegetable imports were comprised of avocadoes, bananas, and blueberries. With Mexico being a vital supplier in this area, shifts in trade policies can have immediate effects on U.S. markets.

The agri-food landscape is more varied as well, with imported goods like coffee, sugar, and cocoa becoming staples in American consumption. Coffee alone constituted about 3% of all farm imports in 2024.

Furthermore, beverage imports continue to outpace exports, with the U.S. importing over $12 billion worth of wine compared to $1.77 billion of American exports in this category. Such trends reveal the interconnectedness of global markets and how tariffs and trade wars have far-reaching effects on what consumers eventually find on store shelves.

As geopolitical tensions rise, the agricultural market remains in flux, continually adapting to new trade agreements and foreign policies, which ultimately affect prices and production. Analyzing these changing dynamics not only allows farmers to strategize better but also offers lessons on how interconnected global agricultural markets can be.

The importance of understanding these trends cannot be overstated, as they highlight the critical balance between import needs and export opportunities within the global agricultural arena. Farmers, traders, and policymakers alike need to remain vigilant as these developments unfold in pursuit of a more secure and profitable agricultural future.

Tags: corn, Brazil, Canada, Production, sales, U.S., futures, Mexico, estimate, China, exports