Conab raises forecast for record Brazilian grain harvest

With the soybean harvest now complete and the second corn harvest beginning, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has raised its forecast for a record national grain harvest to 336.1 million tonnes for 2024/25, up 13% or 38.6 million tonnes from 2023/24.

In its ninth crop review, released on June 12, Conab noted a 2.3% increase in total planted area to 81.8 million hectares, an average total yield of 4,108 kg/ha, and generally good weather for the projected national record. Conab estimated total grain production at 332.9 million tonnes in the May survey. World Grain provides comparative data.

With the soybean harvest complete, Conab estimated production at a record 169.6 million tonnes, up 21.9 million tonnes from 2023/24, maintaining the country’s status as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.

“The good result was driven by increased use of technology by producers, coupled with good weather conditions in most producing regions,” analysts said.

Conab forecasts a total corn crop of 128.3 million tonnes for 2024/25, with the second crop at 101 million tonnes, up 12.2% from last season’s second crop.

“The high expectations were driven by the good yields achieved, which reflect the favorable grain weather conditions observed throughout the cycle in most producing regions, as well as the appropriate management practices applied by Brazilian producers,” Conab said.

The rice harvest, an important food product for the domestic market, is almost complete, and Conab forecasts its production to increase by 14.9% year-on-year to 12.15 million tons.

Earlier, it was reported that soybean imports to China reached a historical maximum last month, due to the purchase of large volumes from Brazil. Currently, about 70% of the beans’ purchases by the largest buyer come from South American countries.

Tags: corn, Brazil, soybean, crop forecast