Conab Lowers Brazil Soybean Estimate 2.7 mt to 122.7 Million

In their March Crop Report released on March 10th, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean crop by 2.7 million tons to 122.7 million. If verified, the 2021/22 crop would be down 15.3 million tons from the 138.1 million tons produced in 2020/21, or down 11.1%.

Southern and northern Brazil had completely different weather this growing season. Hot and dry weather over the last several months took a heavy toll on the soybeans in southern Brazil including the states of Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso do Sul. The weather in central Brazil was excessively wet with nearly constant overcast skies and a lack of sunshine during November and December.

The 2021/22 Brazilian soybean acreage is now estimated at 40.7 million hectares (100.5 million acres), which is up 3.8% compared to last year. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,016 kg/ha (44.9 bu/ac), which is down 1.1 bu/ac from last month and down 7.6 bu/ac from last year.

The 2021/22 Brazil corn production was left unchanged at 112.3 million tons. The first corn crop production decreased slightly to 24.3 million tons and the safrinha corn production increased slightly to 86.1 million tons. The estimate for Brazil’s third corn crop was left unchanged at 1.85 million tons.

Brazil’s first corn crop acreage is estimated at 4.52 million hectares (11.16 million acres), which is up 4.2% compared to last year. The yield of the first corn crop is estimated at 5,372 kg/ha (85.4 bu/ac).

The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 16.00 million hectares (39.5 million acres), which is up 6.7% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,384 kg/ha (85.6 bu/ac). The first corn crop represents 21.6% of Brazil’s total corn production while the safrinha corn crop represents 76.6% of Brazil’s total corn production.

As of late last week, the first corn crop was 45% harvested and the safrinha corn crop was 81% planted.

Soybean & Corn Advisor

Tags: yield, acreage, safrinha corn, Brazil, Conab, soybeans, Production