Companies from ABCD will not exit the Ukrainian market solely to reduce risks — Gorbachev

Attacks on port infrastructure are not encouraging for any investor. Ukrainian companies whose business model is tied to exports will continue repairing and strengthening their infrastructure. However, the situation is more complicated for foreign companies: they operate under approved limits, insurance requirements, and compliance procedures, and cannot simply ignore these risks, said Mykola Gorbachev, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association, in a comment to Latifundist.com.

“During wartime, the trading strategies of large companies change very sensitively. Some reduce purchasing volumes, others impose storage limits at elevators due to the risk of losses. This also leads to higher handling costs, because such facilities need to be insured. Foreign companies cannot afford to operate without insurance coverage,” he said.

According to Gorbachev, before the war the top 10 exporters accounted for about 70% of Ukraine’s exports, while the top 20 accounted for up to 90%. Currently, the combined share of large companies has decreased. New players have entered the market, agricultural companies are seeking their own export channels, and the market structure has become less concentrated.

“I do not think that ABCD companies will leave the Ukrainian market solely to reduce risks. Ukrainian business does not represent such a large share in their global structure that potential losses could critically damage their overall operations. Their presence here is driven by global trading flows. If the Armed Forces have enabled ports to operate, ABCD companies will continue operating as well,” the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association noted.

Another matter, Gorbachev said, is new investors. They will assess Ukraine with a different risk profile and investment appetite. However, those already present in the market are expected to remain.

“For such companies, Ukraine is not only about market share. It is part of a global trading structure. When a buyer in the world says: ‘I want to buy grain from the Black Sea, from Ukraine,’ any of the ABCD companies must be able to respond: ‘We can offer that.’ For them, Ukraine is an expansion of trading opportunities,” Gorbachev added.