Chinese demand for soybeans drops in 2025

The world’s biggest customer for soybeans isn’t quite as hungry for them in 2025.

China imports soybeans from the United States and Brazil as animal feed for its pork industry. In 2024, Arkansas ranked No. 10 in the U.S. for soybean production. Arkansas farmers were planning to plant 3 million acres of soybeans in 2025, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

China imported 1.38 million metric tons of soybeans from the United States in April, down 43.7 percent from April 2024. Brazil saw its exports drop to 4.6 million metric tons, 22.2 percent lower than the previous year.

However, for the first four months of the year, China imported 35.2 percent more soybeans from the U.S. than in the previous year, while Brazilian bean imports to China dropped 42.5 percent during the same period.

Part of its drop in purchasing is because China has lots of soybeans on hand. China is projected to hold about 36 percent of global soybean stocks, an estimated 43.86 million metric tons by the end of 2025. It’s well above the 16.64 million metric tons reported in 2015, slightly below the 46.01 million metric tons in 2024, and about the same as the estimated 43.3 million metric tons in 2023, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

The USDA projects that the 2024-25 marketing year will have record-high global ending stocks at 123.18 million metric tons, up nearly 8 million metric tons from last year’s record of 115.3 million metric tons.

Since 2015, China has added a little over 9 million acres of soybeans and increased production by 8.6 million metric tons or roughly 317 million bushels.

China, which many historians credit for domesticating soybeans some 5,000-6,000 years ago, continues to grow its own soybeans.

“China has been trying to increase their own soybean production and that has contributed to their stockpile,” Stiles said. “USDA data indicate that China’s increase in soybean acres has plateaued over the last three years. Today, the average soybean yield in China is about 30 bushels per acre.”

Arkansas’ state average soybean yield in 2024 was 57 bushels per acre.

Scott Stiles, extension agricultural economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture said some of China’s recent purchasing may have been as a bulwark against future trade actions.

“China’s demand for U.S. soybeans ramped up last fall as it became more apparent Trump could be re-elected and another round of tariffs possible,” he said.

“Plus, soybean prices were at a five-year low so it was a great time to stock up,” Stiles said. “Too, the 2024 U.S. crop was harvested at very low moisture and China recognized the 2024 U.S. soybean crop would store well. ”

What are the implications of China’s buying spree?

“At the present time, there is no urgency for China to buy soybeans from the U.S.,” Stiles said. “China has some soybean reserves of its own and Brazil just harvested a record crop. China also recently inked a new $1 billion ag trade agreement with Argentina for soybeans.”

William Maples, an assistant professor-agricultural economics for Mississippi State University, wrote that “the final estimate for ending stocks will depend on how the South American crop concludes. So far, Brazil has experienced favorable weather conditions, making it likely that it will achieve its estimated record soybean production this year. The outlook for Argentina is less certain.”

“Due to the current high levels of stocks projected by the USDA, soybean prices are expected to remain weak in early 2025,” Maples wrote.

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.

The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.

Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.

Tags: Brazil, United States, soybeans, Production, imports, stocks, animal feed, demand, pork industry, China, exports