China’s soybean production ticks up

Demand for protein meals, particularly soybean meal, continues to drive China’s oilseed consumption, and with 19.93 million tonnes of soybean production projected for marketing year 2025-26, imports are expected to reach 106 million tonnes, relying mostly on South American origins, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Sept. 26 update, the FAS said generally favorable weather conditions in northern China and slightly higher planted area to 9.96 million hectares had improved production prospects slightly from last season’s 19.91 million tonnes.

The FAS maintained its soybean import forecast at 106 million tonnes for 2025-26, unchanged from the previous report and down slightly from a revised estimate of 107 million tonnes in 2024-25 based on totals reported by major exporters. The FAS said its relatively stable forecast for soybean imports is linked to restrained 2% growth in crushing demand and continued efforts by the government to limit import growth for the world’s top purchaser of soybeans.

Since the start of the South American shipping season, China has made record purchases from Brazil, while shunning US purchases amid an ongoing trade war. In May 2025, General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) reported its highest ever monthly import of soybeans at 13.9 million tonnes fueled by 12.1 million tonnes from Brazil, according to the FAS.

“According to USDA FAS Export Sales data, China has not made purchases of soybeans from the United States since May 2025 and, as of Sept. 11 had not made any purchases of new crop soybeans,” the FAS said. “Currently, US soybeans face a 23% tariff entering China, making them uncompetitive in the commercial market.”

The FAS is projecting 103 million tonnes of soybeans to be crushed in 2025-26, up an estimated 2 million tonnes from 2024-25. The FAS reduced its forecast for total oilseeds crushing in 2025-26 to 139.1 million tonnes from the 140.7 million tonnes projected in the previous report on lower rapeseed crushing.

The forecasted crushing volume remains higher than the 138.7 million tonnes for 2024-25, however, reflecting continuous growth in demand for protein meals in the feed sector, the FAS noted. A news report released by China Feed industry Association in June noted that China produced 158.5 million tonnes of feed in the first half of 2025, up 7.7% year on year.

The FAS maintained its forecast for 2025-26 rapeseed production at 15.9 million tonnes on planted area of 7.5 million hectares while reducing expected imports to 3.1 million tonnes from 4.1 million in its previous report.

Trade frictions between Canada and China are the primary driver for the updated import forecast, the FAS said. Canada has been China’s largest supplier for imported rapeseed (canola) for the last two decades. China is attempting to restart imports of rapeseed from Australia, the FAS said.

Tags: Production, soybean meal, forecast, imports, consumption, demand, protein meals, China, soybeans