China’s soybean meal stocks top one million tons and continue to grow

Chinese soybean processors are facing record pressure from meal inventories, which for the first time in history exceeded the psychologically important mark of 1 million tons by the beginning of August. According to the analytical system SunSirs, in the week ending August 6, inventories reached 1.07 million tons.

The main reason for the accumulation of surpluses is the rapid growth of soybean imports. China set several records for soybean purchases, importing 61.04 million tons of beans from January to July 2025 (+4.6% compared to the same period in 2024). And bean imports in July amounted to 11.67 million tons (+18.5% compared to July 2024).

Analysts attribute this growth to the effect of China’s tariff policy, which stimulated the supply of raw materials. Although bean imports began to decline in August, the easing pressure on supply has not yet stopped the accumulation of meal at factories.

Despite record warehouse stocks, the market is showing a weak upward trend. The key factors were support from futures, which are rising despite expectations of a record harvest in the US amid concerns about export demand and uncertainty in the US-China soybean trade, which strengthens domestic soybean and meal futures.

As a result, on August 12, the main soybean meal futures contract was trading at 3,038 yuan / ton (+ 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month).

According to OleoScope, on 12/08/2025, the price of soybean meal (Daylian China) for delivery in August was 419.59 $ / t, which is 0.001 $ / t higher than the previous value of 11/08/2025 (419.58 $ / t).

The domestic meal market in China is also showing signs of recovery, but the continued growth of soybean imports and the increase in the utilization of oilseed mills with the continued weak demand from livestock terminals will most likely lead to a correction in the near future.

Record meal stocks in China are an important indicator of the imbalance between strong imports/processing and seasonally weak demand. Although the futures environment is currently supporting prices, fundamental factors (high stocks + expected supply increase + weak demand) point to the likelihood of lower prices in the near future. The situation requires the attention of soybean exporters focused on the Chinese market, analysts note.

Tags: China, soybean meal