China’s soybean imports set to hit record high in coming months

China’s soybean imports recently fell to a 12-year low, and trade estimates suggest overall consumption could remain sluggish by mid-year.

But the largest supplier, Brazil, has had a record harvest, and its latest exports to China have reached an all-time high. So how does it all fit together?

According to Reuters, China’s soybean import data from customs has recently been out of sync with its suppliers’ export data, so much so that the USDA stopped using them for its estimates last year.

According to China’s customs data, soybean imports in March-April totaled just 9.6 million tonnes, down 32% from the same period last year and the lowest since 2013. China’s total imports for the first seven months of the 2024/25 season are at their lowest in six years.

However, Brazil’s February-April shipments to China remain record high, up about 13% from last year’s record, while September-January shipments are down nearly 40% year-on-year.

Given the discrepancies in trade data, analysts should monitor monthly Chinese customs data to ensure that the recent record shipments are actually reflected in the data, the paper notes.

Analysts forecast China’s soybean imports in May and June to reach about 11 million tonnes, a new record for the period and up 3% from last year, but still near six-year lows with just three months left in the marketing year. That’s a bit of a surprise, since China accounts for more than 70% of Brazil’s soybean exports, which are expected to reach all-time highs this year.

Brazil’s record exports could indeed beat China’s projections, especially given that high exports could persist for a long time. This week, China raised its 2024/25 soybean import estimate to 98.6 million tons from 94.6 million tons previously. USDA estimates China’s 2024/25 imports at 108 million tons, though down from 112 million last year.

Tags: China, soybean, imports