China’s soybean crush margins decline for later shipments

In China, all calculated margins for imported soybean crushing remain positive, indicating that operations are profitable at current futures prices. The analysis, provided by Mysteel, is based on margins before accounting for processing fees and loading/unloading costs.

Despite overall profitability, margins show a clear downward trend depending on the shipment month. While the margin is around 237 CNY per ton for April deliveries, it drops to 90 CNY per ton by August, signaling gradually compressed profits for crushers purchasing soybeans for later arrival.

Weekly data, however, shows some improvements, with May shipments gaining 24 CNY compared to the previous week. Yet the dominant trend remains the sequential monthly decline in profitability.

Analysts note that this market structure reflects rising costs for soybeans with future delivery while the expected value of downstream products — soybean meal and soybean oil — does not keep pace. As a result, crush margins for later shipments are narrowing, potentially discouraging aggressive forward purchases unless downstream product prices rise or soybean costs moderate.

Tags: China, soybean, margin