China’s pork production to dip despite heavier hogs

China’s pork production is expected to decline slightly in 2025, even as average slaughter weights rise, according to a recent USDA FAS forecast. The dip in output is largely due to lower inventories of market-ready swine and subdued consumer demand.

A shift in swine farming patterns is contributing to heavier hogs. When prices increase, small-scale producers are focusing on secondary fattening rather than managing the full production cycle. Under this model, hogs are fattened to 120 kg or more—compared to the typical 100–110 kg—allowing farmers to cash in more quickly.

While this approach is not universal, the growing number of heavier, secondary-fattened pigs is expected to lift average slaughter weights in 2025.

Despite the persistent threat of African swine fever, particularly in northern China during winter, industry sources report that large-scale producers have developed effective disease control strategies, contributing to a relatively stable animal health outlook.

Still, lower swine inventories and tepid pork demand are expected to keep production levels below 2024, even with heavier carcass weights providing some cushion.

Tags: demand, China, pork, prices, African Swine Fever, Production, Pigs