China’s MARA publishes the Report of Global Agricultural Market and Trade 2025

On July 28, 2025, the Agricultural Trade Early-Warning and Remedy Expert Committee of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) published the Report of Global Agricultural Market and Trade 2025 in Beijing. The report reviews the first half of 2025 and provides forecasts for the second half.

The global economic outlook indicates a slowdown, weakening trade demand. According to the World Bank, global trade growth is projected to decline from 3.4% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, marking the slowest pace in nearly a decade. Geopolitical tensions and new U.S. tariffs pose additional disruptions. Meanwhile, the FAO and other agencies predict increased global production of major crops (excluding sugar), with record harvests of rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds. Total grain production in 2025 is expected to reach 2.925 billion tonnes, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with trade volumes rising 1.2% to 487 million tonnes. The global grain stock-to-use ratio will stand at 30.3%, signaling a well-supplied market. In China, a bumper summer grain harvest of 149.74 million tons was secured in 2025, the second-largest on record.

Food prices showed mixed trends. The FAO’s Food Price Index rose modestly by 2.6% in the first half of 2025. Grains and sugar prices declined, while dairy, meat, and vegetable oils saw larger increases. Prices for rice, wheat, maize, sugar, and palm oil fell, whereas soybeans, cotton, soybean and rapeseed oils, pork, beef, lamb, dairy, poultry, and eggs trended upward. China’s agricultural trade in the first half of 2025 totaled USD 147.84 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year. Imports dropped 10.1% to USD 98.5 billion, while exports grew 1.8% to USD 49.34 billion, narrowing the trade deficit by 19.6% to USD 49.16 billion.

For specific crops, the soybean market remains robust. China’s soybean imports rose 1.8% to 49.372 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, with strong domestic demand expected to sustain high imports. The vegetable oil market, including palm, soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, remains tight with elevated prices and slightly reduced trade. China’s oil imports fell 8.6% to 3.187 million tonnes in the first half, with full-year imports projected at 7.5–8.0 million tonnes, driven by domestic and international price dynamics.

The beef and mutton markets face tightening supplies, with a fragile demand-supply balance for mutton likely to drive price increases and slow trade growth. In 2025, China’s beef imports are expected to decline slightly, while mutton imports are projected to rise. The dairy market shows moderate global oversupply but steady price increases, with global dairy trade expected to contract slightly. China’s dairy imports are forecasted to rebound in 2025.

The poultry and egg markets are expected to see a slight oversupply. Poultry prices rose marginally in the first half of 2025, while egg prices fluctuated at elevated levels. For the full year, China’s chicken imports are projected to grow modestly, while egg and egg product exports are expected to expand.

Overall, the report highlights the resilience of China’s agricultural sector amid global challenges, including economic slowdown and geopolitical risks, and forecasts moderate growth in trade for key crops and products in the second half of 2025.

Tags: China, grain, oilseeds, crop forecast, agricultural sector