China will be able to do without American soybeans until at least the end of 2025

Chinese soybean processors, according to Oil World, are able to cover their needs through imports from South America and significant state reserves, so purchases of American products until the end of this year remain unlikely.

In September-December 2025, soybean imports to China are forecast at 35.6 million tons, which is 1 million tons more than last year. Of this volume, 34.5 million tons will be supplied from South America, including 27 million tons from Brazil, while no shipments are expected from the United States, although last year there were more than 9 million tons during this period.

Purchases of Argentine soybeans have increased in particular: since July alone, China has purchased at least 8 million tons, and by the end of the year this figure may increase by another 6 million tons. For comparison, in September-December 2024, Argentina exported only 2.5 million tons to China.

Analysts predict that the trend could continue in the first half of 2026. The expected record harvest in Brazil of 176 million tons, as well as high yields in Argentina and Uruguay, will provide sufficient supply for China to continue to refrain from purchasing American soybeans.

Tags: China, soybean