China set for record soybean imports in 2024

China imported 8.09 million metric tons of soybeans in October with buyers rushing to stockpile before Donald Trump takes office early next year, as the world’s top soybean buyer heads for its largest annual imports on record.

October arrivals were the biggest for the month in four years, surging 56% from 5.18 million tons a year ago, according to customs data released on Thursday.

“The October soybean imports were 600,000 higher than our initial estimate,” said Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

The jump comes as crush margins in China’s key processing hub of Rizhao improved from a loss of about 600 yuan ($83.72) per ton of soybean processed in August to a loss of 75 yuan ($10.47).

Exporters in the United States had raced to ship a record-large US harvest to China ahead of the US presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions, traders and analysts said.

“We still estimate very high imports of soybeans in the following months as Chinese buyers rush” to secure stocks before Trump takes office in January.

Total soy imports in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 89.94 million tons, up 11.2% year-on-year and close to last year’s imports of 99.41 million tons, the customs data showed.

China imported 100.31 million tons of soy in 2020, its highest ever.

Tariff threats from president-elect Trump’s campaign speeches are prompting some Chinese importers to shun US shipments from January onward, traders and analysts said.

China’s most active soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rallied 3.6% after Trump recaptured the White House on Tuesday with a sweeping victory.

The most active rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jumped 4.76%.

China’s push to shift its sources of soybean supply to Brazil since 2018 has put it in a better position to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on US farm goods with less harm to its food security if trade friction flares with Washington.

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Tags: China, harvest, United States, soybeans, imports