China expects rapeseed meal shortage after tariffs on Canadian goods

China is likely to face a shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing’s tariffs on supplies from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and alternative sources are unlikely to make up the shortfall, Reuters reported.

China’s tariffs on rapeseed meal and oil came as a surprise to the industry, which had been expecting higher duties on oilseeds since Beijing launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian imports in September.

“Everyone expected the government to announce tariffs on rapeseed, but we were surprised when the announcement came for oilseed and meal. This will hit feed producers hard as they were trying to import more Canadian meal instead of oilseed,” said one trader in Singapore.

China relies on top producer Canada for more than 70% of its rapeseed meal imports and almost all of its oilseed imports.

Traders and analysts have warned of an imminent shortage by the third quarter of this year, when stocks run out.

Chinese customs are allowing imports of rapeseed meal from 11 countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Japan, Ethiopia, Australia, India and Belarus, providing alternative supply options. But the product’s availability on the international market is limited.

According to customs data, in 2024, China imported 2.02 million tonnes of the meal from Canada, 504,000 tonnes from the United Arab Emirates and 135 000 tonnes from Russia.

Some of China’s demand could shift to Russia, Ukraine or India, but these countries are unlikely to be able to fully satisfy China’s appetite, traders and analysts say.

“No country really has the scale of Canada,” said Ole Howe, director of consultancy IKON Commodities in Sydney.

Australia, the world’s second-largest exporter of rapeseed, does not have the large surplus or processing capacity to significantly increase its rapeseed meal exports, Howe said.

India is the second-largest exporter of rapeseed meal, supplying about 2 million tonnes of the meal annually, although higher prices have limited supplies to China in 2024 to just 13 100 tonnes.

Tags: rapeseed meal, China, Canada, restrictions