Canola supplies from Australia continue to put pressure on canola prices in the EU

Rape quotes on the Paris stock exchange fell to their lowest level since September 2022 amid a drop in global demand for vegetable oils following lower oil prices and increased supply in the European market due to record canola crops in Australia and Canada, as well as a good crop in the EU.

During March, May rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 9.4% to €482.75/t or $518.5/t (-15% for the month, -48% for the year), and canola in Winnipeg – by 8.3% to CAD 757/t or $553/t (-8.5% for the month, -19% for the year).

From July to February of the 2022/23 season, 27 EU countries imported 4.6 million tons of rapeseed, which is 45% higher than last year’s rate. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI), the leader among the main suppliers of rapeseed to the EU, despite the war, remained Ukraine, whose share in the total import of rapeseed to the EU increased to 2.6 million tons or 56% compared to 50% in 2021 /22 MY. The second position, thanks to the record harvest, is occupied by Australia with a share of 1.7 million tons or 36.4% of European imports. While Canada’s share in rapeseed imports to the EU decreased from 501.8 thousand tons or 12% in 2021/22 FY to 193.4 thousand tons or 4.2% in 2022/23 MY. Moldova and Serbia also reduced rapeseed supplies to the EU this season.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in January, the country reduced canola exports by 6% compared to December, from 763.34 to 715.1 thousand tons. At the same time, December export data were adjusted and decreased by 14% from a record 883.8 thousand tons

Germany (238.2 thousand tons), Belgium (130.7 thousand tons), Bangladesh (105.2 thousand tons), Japan (74 thousand tons) and UAE (59.7 thousand tons) imported the most Australian canola in January.

We will remind that in the March report USDA experts increased the forecast of rapeseed exports for Australia by 550 thousand tons to 6.25 million tons, and for Ukraine – by 250 thousand tons to 3.35 million tons.