Canola prices rose 2.5% amid settlement of US tariffs and hopes for tariff removal by China

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Friday that Canada and the United States have agreed to restore duty-free trade for most goods. He said 85% of trade between the countries would be duty-free.

Carney said that last week the Americans confirmed that they would not apply tariffs to Canadian goods covered by the CUSMA free trade agreement (known as USMCA in the US). The remaining goods will be subject to a 35% tariff.

“As a result of this US decision, the effective tariff rate on Canadian goods will be 5.6% compared to the average rate of 16% for the rest of the world. This is the lowest rate among all US trading partners. Canada now has the best trading conditions with the US. They are not what they were before, but they are still better than any other country,” Carney said.

To maintain these conditions, Canada agreed to make reciprocal concessions to the United States.

The settlement of tariffs with the US will provide the market with stable supplies of canola and canola oil in the US, which is why November canola futures have increased by 2.5% over the last two sessions to 666 CAD/t or $481.5/t (-5.1% per month).

But quotes continue to rise today (and are currently trading at 673 CAD/t) amid a statement by Scott Moe, Premier of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, the country’s largest grain producer, that he will soon travel to China for talks to persuade Beijing to lift new tariffs on Canadian canola.

Recall that from August 14, 2025, China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of Canadian canola in the amount of 75.8%, which led to a drop in November futures by 4.6% in one day to 650 CAD/t.

November rapeseed futures in Paris remained at €475/t or $556/t last week, and the rise in canola prices will provide additional support to both quotes and rapeseed prices in Ukraine.

Ukraine has completed the rapeseed harvest, with 3.1 million tons threshed compared to the USDA forecast of 3.5 million tons and 3.8 million tons last season, so demand continues to grow, and competition between processors and exporters is pushing prices up.

Last week, processing companies raised their prices by 300-500 UAH/t to 23,500-24,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, and for oil content above 47-48% they pay a premium of 300 UAH/t.

Exporters have increased their prices under foreign exchange contracts by $3-5/t to $535-547/t, but prices in hryvnias remain at a low level of UAH 23,300-24,000/t for delivery to Black Sea ports due to uncertainty with the introduction of duties.

Tags: prices, rapeseed