Total wheat production for Canada is forecast to reach 34.3 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, up from 32.9 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Preliminary model-based field crop estimates show Canada’s spring wheat production in 2024-25 fell 1% over the previous year on a 2.9% decline in area planted, partly offset by improved average yields from 3.29 tonnes per hectare to 3.37.

Durum wheat production for 2024-25 was forecast up 48% over the previous year on a 5.5% increase in area planted with better soil moisture, and improved average yields from 1.72 tonnes per hectare to 2.41, the FAS said in its latest update on Nov. 4.

“The wheat harvest began in mid-August in Western Canada after minor delays due to rainfalls,” the FAS said. “On average, the wheat-growing regions of Western Canada had improved soil moisture during the growing period, compared to the previous year, which boosted average yields.”

Industry contacts in Ontario reported that winter wheat planting was nearing completion the week of Sept. 28 and planting conditions had been ideal in most parts of the province, the FAS said.

Statistics Canada said total stocks of wheat for 2024-25 fell 18.5% year over year to 4.6 million tonnes as of July 31. The decline was partially due to lower total national supply, down 1% year over year to 38.7 million tonnes, the FAS said.

Total wheat milled increased in 2023-24 to 3.29 million tonnes and is expected to grow to 3.6 million tonnes in 2024-25 due to expanded capacity. Data thus far indicates that the quality of the 2024 wheat crop is high.

Parrish & Heimbecker’s P&H Milling Group in September announced the construction of a new flour milling facility in Red Deer County, Alberta, Canada. The facility will have the capacity to process 230,000 tonnes of wheat each year. The project is expected to be complete by fall 2025.

In the first quarter of the 2024 calendar year, Rogers Foods Ltd. completed a 90 tonnes per day expansion of its hard wheat B unit in Chilliwack, British Columbia, Canada, bringing capacity to 300 tpd.

Exports in 2024-25 for Canada, one of the world’s major suppliers, are forecast at 25.5 million tonnes, up slightly from the estimated 25.37 million tonnes in 2023-24.

In 2023-24, non-durum wheat exports were estimated at 21.5 million tonnes, up 6% over the previous year, led by large volume increases to the EU and Indonesia due to strong beginning stocks and an increase in 2023 winter wheat production, the FAS said. Durum wheat exports in 2023-24 fell 30% to 3.5 million tonnes on a 30% drop in production due to the impact of drought conditions on yields.

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