Canada: Prairies expect warm, wet weather this winter

John Baranick’s weather forecast comes with the caveat that he has low confidence in the outlook.

That’s because after months of anticipation, the La Nina weather event has failed to develop.

“That big driver is not there,” said DTN’s agricultural meteorologist.

It is an odd situation because last winter’s weather was shaped by a super El Nino and the three years before that were influenced by La Nina events.

However, conditions this year are La Nada, or ENSO neutral, heading into the dead of winter.

“We don’t have that big driver in the Pacific (Ocean), so other things are going to be important,” he said during a presentation at DTN’s 2024 Ag Summit.

One of those factors is the Madden-Julien Oscillation (MJO), which is a group of thunderstorms that moves across the equator from west to east.

The thunderstorms add energy into the upper atmosphere that fuels jet streams and impacts weather around the world.

The MJO typically takes about 30 to 60 days to circle the Earth, acting as a “major disruptor” to weather patterns along the way.

It is currently residing over Indonesia and is expected to bring colder weather to North America in early January.

The Arctic Oscillation or Polar Vortex is going to be the other major weather influencer this winter.

A stable Polar Vortex usually circles the North Pole 16 to 48 kilometres above the Earth’s surface.

It contains a polar jet stream of cold air below that is swirling eight to 14 km above the North Pole.

However, weather events such as the MJO can disrupt the Polar Vortex, splitting it in two and nudging it off its North Pole axis, sending it descending south into Russia, Europe or North America.

Baranick expects that to happen this year in about four weeks when a bulge of warm temperature in Alaska pushes the vortex off its

axis. It will take another four weeks for the cool air contained in the vortex to descend to the Earth’s surface.

That will likely occur in February. It is uncertain if that cool air will be pushed out onto North America, Russia or Europe.

Despite the anticipated shots of cool air caused by the MJO and the Polar Vortex, he is forecasting a warmer-than-usual winter for the United States and the Canadian Prairies.

That is because there appears to be a strong correlation between weather conditions in October and those in the December-February period in what is supposed to be a La Nina year.

And October was very warm.

He is also forecasting decent precipitation in the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies this winter, while it could be dry in the winter wheat growing region of the central and southern Plains that recently emerged from a prolonged drought.

“Those areas that do have good soil moisture at the moment might not have those good winter rains and snows to help maintain that,” he said.

The spring forecast is a continuation of the winter forecast with an overall warm bias accompanied by wetness in the northern tier and dryness in the south.

Baranick said most forecasters were anticipating dry conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil.

“But that really has not been the case,” he said.

That’s because La Nina failed to materialize. Soil moisture conditions look great for both countries, aside from a few isolated spots.

Satellite-based vegetative growth maps show that their soybean crops are off to a phenomenal start.

However, Baranick believes that some “hazardous weather” is on the way, with extended dry periods in December and January.

That probably won’t be enough to cause much harm to Brazil’s soybean crop due to its advanced state, but it could hurt the country’s safrinha corn crop that follows the soybeans.

Tags: Эль-Ниньо, Polar Vortex, weather, soybeans, Outlook, La Nina, winter, safrinha corn