Canada: Farmers face variety of economic risks this year

Agriculture producers are always facing risks when it comes to their profession and the current landscape in 2025 is no different.

“The Canadian ag industry always seems to run into little bits of danger and it’s on a scale,” Cami Ryan, senior business partner for industry affairs and sustainability with Bayer Crop Science Canada, said during the recent Ag Expo and North American Seed Fair in Lethbridge.

”But optimistically, what I find about this industry is that we always find opportunity for growth and change. But, we still have to address the challenges and we need to understand what this risk landscape is about.… What it looks like for industry, we have to understand, especially for you farmers growing the crops.”

Ryan was born and raised in Saskatchewan. While her parents did not farm, other family members did, and she holds a bachelor’s degree in bio-tech management and marketing and a PhD in interdisciplinary studies, which covers agricultural economics, psychology and sociology.

“Right now, it’s not just about reaching out and engaging with people about agriculture with other stakeholders in the industry. Our partners understand that tricky relationship between agriculture science and society. What you put out in the fields and how society perceives it,” said Ryan.

“Agricultural science thinks and the public feels, and I try and bridge the gap.”

Ryan addressed the elephant in the room that has been dominating headlines of late — threatened U.S. tariffs of 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Tariffs were imposed for two days in early March and then postponed until April 2.

The tariffs, if they do come into effect, would shake up all North American markets, not just Canada’s.

Grain Growers of Canada says it worries the tariffs will drive up producers’ already high input costs and create more logistical headaches. With global crop surpluses driving prices down, having access to the U.S. market is crucial in keeping many Canadian businesses/farmers afloat, it adds.

In light of these tariff threats, the federal government brought together a council on Canada-U.S. relations to get input from industry.

“What I’m trying to say is, rest assured, there is work going on behind the scenes that may not always be visible to the farmer, but we are working on it,” said Ryan.

Proposed tariffs add another layer to already uncertain market conditions, she said.

A looming federal election is also causing uncertainty.

“There’s a little bit of unpredictability right now, and we’re hoping some things get resolved in the next little while (as) we figure things out and it sets the path out. I challenge all of us to stay attune of what’s going on out there, staying connected and informed. Canada needs to remain strong and balance the needs of our sector while also continuing to foster a relationship with the U.S.”

Ryan also talked about China’s anti-dumping investigation into canola, which it announced in September.

The country has a year to wrap up the investigation into Canadian canola imports. The move has increased trade tensions, which is familiar territory for the two countries.

In 2019, China halted Canada’s canola imports after they were deemed by China as “canola quality issues,” although some pundits believed it was more about diplomatic relations between Ottawa and Beijing.

The most recent action by China comes as a response to Canada slapping tariffs on China’s electrical vehicles, steel and aluminum, which it sees as unfair.

“Canola is a big deal for Canadian farmers (in the China market). China makes up to almost a third of our total export value,” said Ryan of 2023 numbers.

“This anti-dumping investigation could shake up this vital market and lead to some serious revenue losses for Canadian farmers. On a brighter note, the Canola Council of Canada is working with the Canadian government to tackle this investigation and they are really hopeful this is going to show that Canada is playing by the rules when it comes to trade.. But, as everyone in this industry knows, long-term trade disputes can be risky. The estimates say that the Canadian canola sector lost about $2.35 billion in March 2019.”

Since Ryan’s presentation earlier in March, China announced 100 per cent tariffs on canola oil and meal, but an announcement on the anti-dumping investigation, which affects canola seed, is still forthcoming.

As well, Ryan discussed Canada’s Sustainable Life Strategy, which began in 2022 as a national effort to advance the 17 sustainable development goals of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Many Canadian stakeholders are currently abandoning the initiative.

“Last fall, an important development occurred that showed the strain between the federal government and the farmers. Several grower groups opted to withdraw from the sustainable ag strategy. This initiative aimed to create a collaborative framework for addressing climate change, enhancing biodiversity, improving water management and improving soil health. All these things we do on the farm already,” said Ryan.

“However, critics argued it devolved into a real bureaucratic process that is disconnected from the realities of farming and food production. The grower groups that withdrew cited a lack of meaningful engagement and practical solutions as reasons for their departure. The absence of trust and communication signals significant challenges for the industry as that distance grows between farmers and federal government. Without the involvement of essential stakeholders the effectiveness of any strategy around sustainability is thrown into question and jeopardizes the long-term viability of what our policies may be for sustainability for our country.”

Ryan concluded her list of economic risks with the revamping of the Pesticide Management Regulatory Agency.

“A lot of the folks in the industry are worried it might mean tougher rules that will make it really hard to get access to the crop protection tools that farmers need,” said Ryan, adding CropLife Canada has been voicing concerns to provincial-national-territorial working groups on pesticides with a focus on the rising registration fees for pesticides.

“The system is important, it does a role. Is it onerous? Sure, we can argue it 100 per cent. But we need it in some ways. Navigating products and technologies through regulatory systems is complex and is very expensive. But, most importantly, it’s time onerous. It costs a lot of time and we don’t want delays to get good technology to market for farmers to use.”

Ryan said CropLife Canada hopes the transformative changes will be put on hold until after the federal election.

Tags: canola, Canada, risks, canola oil, imports, canola meal, Mexico, tariffs, China