Canada: Canola, wheat harvest estimates slip

Hot and dry weather saw crop conditions decline across much of Western Canada over the past month, with the latest model-based production estimates from Statistics Canada showing downward revisions in both canola and wheat production from the August report.

Canadian canola production for 2024-25 was forecast at 18.98 million tonnes in the report released Sept. 16, which compares with the August estimate of 19.5 million tonnes. If realized, that would be down 1.1 per cent on the year but still well above the five-year average of 18.34 million tonnes.

Total wheat output was down by only 80,000 tonnes from the August estimate at 34.29 million tones. That marks an increase of 4.1 per cent on the year, with most of the growth coming from durum. Durum production was revised only slightly from August at 6.03 million tonnes, which would be up by nearly two million tonnes from 2023-24.

Harvested barley area is forecast to be down by 14.3 per cent on the year, with the crop down by 14.7 per cent at 7.60 million tonnes.

A 14.6 per cent rise in oat area is expected to more than offset a small decline in average yields, resulting in a 14.2 per cent increase in oat production at 3.017 million tonnes.

Both grains saw only minor revisions from the August forecast.

Pea production was revised slightly higher from August, while lentils were down slightly. However, production for both pulses is expected to be up from 2023-24, with the pea crop up 21.1 per cent at 3.16 million tonnes and lentils up 44 per cent at 2.59 million tonnes.

Soybean production is forecast to be up by 3.1 per cent on the year at 7.20 million tonnes, while corn is projected to be down by 1.6 per cent at 15.17 million tonnes.

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Tags: crop, forecast, dry weather, output, durum, barley, estimate, canola, pea, soybeans, Canada, Production, wheat