Bulgaria to harvest lowest sunseed crop in a decade

A new USDA FAS/Sofia report estimates a reduction in Bulgaria’s oilseed crop in MY 2024/25 due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August.

FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed crop at 190,000 tons, 9% less than last year and 36% less than two years ago. The estimate is based on preliminary crop data, which show a decrease in average yields. In MY 2023/24 Bulgaria was a net importer of rapeseed with trade growth driven by the expansion of domestic processing capacity, and this trend is expected to continue in MY 2024/25.

Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s Ministry of Agriculture reported an additional reduction in harvested area based on updated preliminary harvest data from 75,500 ha in early June to 70,000 ha as of August. This is 12% lower than the area harvested in MY 2023/24. The data also shows a 5.7% decrease in average rapeseed yield (2.48 t/ha) and a 26.2% decrease in production (172 thousand tons) compared to MY 2023/24.

The sunseed crop is estimated to fall to 1.7 million tons in MY 2024/25, down 4% from last year and 21% from MY 2022/23. This drop contrasts with earlier optimistic expectations in the spring due to higher sunflower planted area this year. If the forecast materializes, this will be the smallest sunseed crop in a decade. These developments are predicted to lead to a shortage of the seed and a likely decline in exports and processing.

Updated preliminary harvest data from the country’s ministry at the end of August shows an increase in the area planted to sunflower with 922,000 hectares, up 7.1% from the same period last year, but the first harvest data as of August 29 shows a 16% (1.47 t/ha) decrease in yields compared to 2023/24 MY. Initial stocks in MY 2024/25 are estimated at 210,000 tons compared to 271,000 tons in MY 2023/24.

Import demand is projected to be strong and exacerbated by a reduction in oilseed crops in the region and in the EU. For these reasons, production and exports of sunflower oil and meal are projected to decline. Traders and processors are likely to limit sunflower seed exports in anticipation of higher prices for processed products.

Bulgaria is the leading sunflower producer in the EU with an output of more than 4.5 million tons. In the last two marketing years, a strong crush has allowed the country to export significant quantities of sunflower oil and meal outside the EU. This situation could change in MY 2024/25, and some of these export markets could be temporarily lost due to lower export supplies and potentially less competitive export prices. In addition, this situation may contribute due to higher EU import demand for oilseeds, vegetable oils and meal.

Tags: Bulgaria, sunseed, crop forecast