Bulgaria to harvest 7 mln tons of wheat in MY 2025/26

If favorable weather conditions continue, Bulgaria’s corn crop in the 2025-26 marketing year is expected to rebound significantly from last season’s sharp decline due to severe drought and heat, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Information Service (FAS).

In its June 9 report, FAS noted that farmers are cautious about planting corn due to weather-related yield losses in the past three years, and while planting has not yet been completed, private sector sources estimate that 400,000 to 450,000 hectares will be planted in 2025-26, up from 503,000 hectares in 2024-25.

Although weather-related risks remain in July and August, FAS says maize yields could recover from an exceptionally low 3.25 tonnes/ha in 2024 to 4.4-5 tonnes/ha, with production forecast at 1.8-2.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 1.6 million tonnes in 2024-25.

FAS says low availability and quality issues have kept exports slow and unusually low. Agriculture Ministry data show maize exports totalled 185,000 tonnes at end-May 2024-25, with Greece the main destination, up from 548,000 tonnes in the same period in 2023-24.

In contrast, imports for 2024-25 to end-May increased to 329,000 tonnes, up from just 10,000 tonnes a year earlier.

“Despite lower early season maize use due to small crops and uncertain quality, higher imports and improved demand have led to a recovery in maize use,” FAS said. “The main users of maize for food/industrial purposes were starch and ethanol producers, who not only purchased most of the available local quality maize but also increased their use of imported maize.”

Spring weather was generally favourable for winter crops as well, leading to positive yield prospects for wheat and barley. Generally moderate temperatures and adequate rainfall have created favourable conditions for winter crops, FAS said.

Under these favourable conditions, FAS forecasts wheat production at 7 million tonnes and barley at 1 million tonnes in 2025/26, in line with the previous record season. If growing conditions remain favourable, FAS believes there is potential for further increases in average yields and production for both crops.

“Increased acreage and favourable weather conditions are expected to support good yields; however, producers are taking different approaches to the use of fertilisers and crop protection products due to rising prices,” FAS said.

As of end-May 2024/25, wheat exports reached 5.63 million tonnes, of which 4.5 million tonnes were exported to non-EU countries. The main export markets were Algeria, Egypt, Spain, Thailand and Greece.

Demand for barley exports in 2024-25 has been strong and as of the end of May, exports had risen to over 740,000 tonnes, of which 360,000 tonnes were exported to non-EU countries, notably Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Spain, Portugal and Morocco.

Tags: Bulgaria, wheat, crop forecast