Brazil’s soybean exports to decline in 2024 – forecast

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 96 million tons in 2024 compared to 101.86 million tons in 2023, down 6%. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand estimate published by Safras & Mercado. In the previous report, published in March, the forecast was 94 million tons.

Safras forecasts processing at 54.3 million tons in 2024 and 53.165 million tons in 2023. There were no changes in the forecast compared to March.

Safras indicates imports of 650,000 tons in 2024, compared to 181,000 tons in 2023.

In the 2024 season, total soybean supplies are expected to decline by 4% to 156.54 million tons. Total demand is forecast by Safras at 153.3 million tons, down 4% from a year earlier. Thus, ending stocks are expected to fall by 30%, from 4.641 million tons to 3.237 million tons.

Safras estimates soybean meal production in 2024 at 41.75 million tons, repeating last year’s figure. Exports are expected to fall 7% to 21 million tons, while domestic consumption is forecast at 18.6 million, falling 6%. Stockpiles are expected to rise 147% to 3.62 million tons.

Soybean oil production is expected to rise 1% to 10.96 million tons. Brazil is expected to export 1.3 million tons, down 44%. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 12% to 9.65 million tons. Biodiesel use is expected to increase 17% to 5.6 million tons. Inventories are forecast to rise 12% to 575,000 tons.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, export