Brazil’s crop production has stabilized despite looming weather problems

Soybean acreage is expected to increase by 3.6%, with production reaching 177.6 million tonnes, compared to 171.5 million tonnes in 2024-25. Soybean plantings this season are within the five-year average, but are behind schedule compared to the same period last season, particularly in Goiás and Minas Gerais.

According to Conab, given the projected decline in US exports, increased global demand, and expectations of increased production in Brazil, the country’s exports are expected to rise significantly, reaching 112.1 million tonnes, up 5.11% from the previous harvest.

“Furthermore, the expected increase in mandatory biodiesel blending, coupled with growing demand for plant-based protein, suggests that soybean production for processing could reach 59.37 million tonnes in 2026,” Conab stated. “This represents a 1.37% increase over the previous year.”

After three harvests, corn production is estimated at 138.8 million tonnes, down 1.6% from the previous cycle. In the first harvest, planting area is expected to increase by 7%, with projected production reaching 25.9 million tonnes.

Conab forecasts domestic corn consumption in the 2025-2026 season to be approximately 94.6 million tonnes, up 4.5% from the previous cycle. This increase will be driven primarily by increased demand for ethanol production.

Exports are also expected to increase and could reach 46.5 million tonnes, supported by a continued healthy production surplus.

Wheat production, the main winter crop, is estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, slightly below the 2024 target of 7.9 million tonnes. Overall, climatic conditions in the main production regions were favorable for crop development. However, reduced investment in inputs, particularly fertilizers and pesticides, has made crops more susceptible to disease and limited the full realization of their productive potential, leading to smaller ears and fewer grains, Konab noted.

Tags: corn, Brazil, soybean, crop forecast