Corn planted area and production are expected to increase in Brazil in 2025-26, as farmers’ sowing outlooks were supported by higher prices and export prospects, while wheat and rice also enjoy improved harvests, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS forecasts Brazil to harvest 130 million tonnes of corn from 22.5 million hectares in 2025-26, up from 126 million tonnes and 22 million hectares in 2024-25. Despite the expectation of a full harvest, delays in planting could pose risks to productivity.
“In some regions of Brazil, the planting of the second crop (80% of total production) was completed outside the ideal window, a period deemed optimal for sowing corn immediately after the soybean harvest,” the FAS said. “Consequently, yields may be significantly affected by adverse weather conditions that can harm crop development. Delays in planting within the ideal window may also lead producers to choose other crops, such as sorghum or winter grains, instead of corn.”
Total consumption is seen at 89.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2 million tonnes over 2024-25. Low stocks and strong demand increased corn prices to high levels in the domestic market.
Exports are expected to remain the same for both marketing years at 44 million tonnes. Brazil has emerged in recent years as a leading global corn exporter on par with the United States.
In 2024, Brazil set records for the slaughter of cattle, chickens and pigs, with corn the primary ingredient in animal feed, according to the FAS. The country also currently has 24 ethanol plants that use corn as a raw material, according to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). Among these, 18 are full-scale corn-based plants, while the remaining facilities are flex plants that can produce ethanol from both sugar cane and corn.
Wheat production in 2025-26 is forecast to reach its second-highest mark in history at 9.1 million tonnes, following expectations of increased yields through higher crop investments, the FAS said. Producers across the country have begun planning for the 2025-26 harvest, with sowing anticipated to begin in April in most of the producing regions.
Wheat consumption for 2025-26 is seen reaching 12.2 million tonnes, a 0.8% increase over 11.9 million tonnes the previous year. With sufficient stocks and improved production, imports are expected to decline year on year from 6.5 million tonnes to 6 million. Wheat exports are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, the same as 2024-25.
“As one of the primary commodities in the Brazilian basic food basket, the consumption pattern for wheat does not typically fluctuate, even with significant price changes,” the FAS said. “While Brazilians may substitute certain wheat-based products, they generally continue to consume essential wheat goods like bread.”
Favorable weather conditions positively impacted the harvesting of Brazil’s 2024-25 rice crop (April 2025-March 2026), which has recently begun and is expected to come in at 8.08 million tonnes, a jump from 7.2 million tonnes in 2023-24. As a result, rice supply is increasing in the domestic market, putting downward pressure on prices. For 2025-26, the FAS sees rice production stable at 8.1 million tonnes.
The FAS increased its estimate for rice planted area for 2024-25 to 1.7 million hectares, a 6.3% increase over the previous forecast.
“Rice growers anticipate robust production this year, supporting exports and encouraging the upcoming 2025-26 harvest, set to begin planting around September,” the FAS said.
Rice is a staple food in Brazil, found in nearly 95% of households, however, Brazilian domestic consumption alone does not support higher prices without a more robust international trade environment.
The FAS forecasts rice exports for 2025-26 (April 2026 – March 2027) at 1.4 million tonnes, an 8% increase over 1.3 million tonnes in 2024-25. The increase is based on Brazilian rice exports becoming more competitively priced in international markets and stronger production from this season.
