Brazilian soyabean production forecast to reach 176M tonnes in 2025/2026

The latest projection from a total planted area of 49.1M ha was an increase of almost 2% from the USDA’s initial forecast of 173M tonnes and up from 169.5M tonnes in 2024/25, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)’s 1 July Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update.

“This increase is mainly driven by the expansion of soyabean planted area, supported by high global demand, stable weather with an El Niño season, and an increase in productivity compared to the prior and current years,” the USDA said.

“Agro-meteorological monitoring systems have reported favourable weather for most parts of Brazil during the first half of 2025, contributing to a production recovery from last year, when Brazil faced difficulties due to weather instability caused by the El Niño climate patterns.”

The average national yield in Brazil was expected to reach 3.58 tonnes/ha in 2025/26.

According to sources within Brazil, the end of, or more flexibility in, the Soy Moratorium, could lead to a significant expansion of soyabean planted area in 2026, the USDA said.

Established in 2006, the Soy Moratorium is an agreement by major soyabean traders, environmental organisations, and the Brazilian government to prevent the sale of soyabeans grown on land deforested in the Amazon biome after July 2008. The goal is to control deforestation driven by soyabean expansion.

Various stakeholders – including agribusiness associations, members of the Agricultural Caucus (Bancada Ruralista) and some trade companies – had called for the termination or relaxation of the Soy Moratorium, saying that the policy unjustly restricted economic development in the Amazon region and contravened Brazilian legislation on the issue, the USDA said.

Despite record yields and increased production, financial challenges persisted in 2025 due to high input costs and rising interest rates, the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report said.

“Although the Brazilian real has recently gained more stability, the sharp depreciation of the currency in the past couple of years has raised the cost of imported inputs such as fertilisers and agrochemicals, squeezing profit margins,” the USDA said.

“Financial pressures, combined with stagnating commodity prices, increases in production costs, and past over-investment during price peaks, led to a surge in loan defaults and judicial recovery filings among farmers, despite strong production forecasts.”

Export projections increased to 114M tonnes for 2025/26 compared to an earlier estimate of 112M tonnes, supported by expanded port capacity and growing demand from China.

“This increase is mainly driven by possible opportunities Brazil initiated through ongoing tariff disputes and market strategy,” the USDA said.

“Another factor that supports an eventual increase in the number of soyabean exports and the country’s capacity to accommodate this increase in demand is the expansion of terminal STS11 at the Port of Santos, which is currently operated by COFCO International, the largest Chinese food and agriculture company.”

Operations at STS11 were expected to start in 2026, with the terminal set to be one of the largest in the Port of Santos, which currently accounts for nearly 30% of total soyabean exports.

According to the US Census Bureau, China decreased its soyabean imports from the USA by 8% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to last year.

Data from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade showed that Brazil exported 16.9M tonnes of soyabeans to China in the first quarter of 2025. This represented an increase of nearly 7% compared to the 15.8M tonnes exported during the same period the previous year.

The USDA increased its original projection for Brazilian soyabean crushing to 57M tonnes, a 2.1% increase from the previous year.

“This expansion reflects Brazil’s large protein production industries requiring more soyabean meal for animal feed, as well as the government’s B15 biodiesel mandate, expected to take effect between 2025 and 2026, which boosts demand for soyabean oil as a key feedstock,” the USDA said.

The projected crush rate of 57M tonnes would produce an estimated 11.5M tonnes of soyabean oil, with nearly 13% of total production exported to other countries.

During the first five months of 2025, Brazil exported a total of 658,000 tonnes of soyabean oil, a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. India remained the main destination for Brazilian soyabean oil, accounting for more than 70% of its total exports to date in 2025.

Tags: yield, soyabean, demand, Эль-Ниньо, planted area, export, Brazil, Production, forecast