Brazil: While exports are developing, corn summer crop planting begins

The Brazilian corn market continues to have some progress, albeit at a much slower pace. Some regions with higher retention, such as Paraná and Goiás, for example, are growing in line with demand developments. August, September, and October are seasonally good months for exports, and 2025 is not denying this seasonality, with good shipments. The point is, this is not enough. The Brazilian market needs strong shipments in the last quarter of the business year to justify some tightening of domestic supply and support prices. We should point out the differences between 2024 and 2025, with the exchange rate pattern quite distant and not strengthening port prices. We can easily extend sales until 2026. The biggest issue will be soybeans and the space to receive the crop from January.

The harvest of the 2025 second crop has finished in most producing regions and should be over in the coming few days in the Southeast, where it is a little later. Now, producers have part of their second crop sold and a large portion stored, believing in higher prices ahead.

Second-crop sales reached 49.7% in the Center-South region and 61.3% in the Matopiba region. This means that we still have nearly 50-55 mln tons held by producers in their warehouses, cooperatives, or silo bags. From the producer’s perspective, it seems fair to conduct a measured sales process while awaiting better sales opportunities. For example, Mato Grosso traded corn at BRL 35/bag in July and currently has a basis for deals between BRL 45/50 regionally.

In Paraná, prices are struggling to break the BRL 60 mark, while Goiás is trying to push prices to BRL 55 with the help of some trading companies that accelerated purchases for October/November over the week. In Mato Grosso do Sul, regional demand remains strong, with sales ranging from BRL 50 in the Chapadão do Sul region to BRL 56 CIF Dourados. Minas Gerais had a firmer market last week, with producers holding back much of this second crop’s production and many consumers not having taken a position during the harvest. In this scenario, short-term needs end up offering prices of BRL 60/62 in the Triângulo Mineiro region last week, and sorghum as low as BRL 50/51.

São Paulo, on the other hand, still has a calmer market. Producers reaped and sold little, and exports do not provide a price cushion in the interior of São Paulo to allow domestic demand to compete with exports. On the other hand, many consumers are still receiving plenty of corn from other states this month and are not exerting an aggressive regional buying force at this time. Reaped corn is still stored in warehouses awaiting the local producer’s selling decision.

In the South of the country, there is relative stability, with consumers still holding stocks for September, with many delayed receipts of batches from other states, and seeking to adjust regional prices to the competitive reality of exports. The issue is that Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraguay currently have healthy regional demand and significant producer retention. Producers are settling their commitments based on final soybean sales and delaying corn sales. This is helping prices, at least until producers need to empty warehouses for the 2026 soybean crop.

In Matopiba and the Northeast region in general, corn prices are beginning to firm up somewhat via Piauí and Maranhão. There is new regional demand this year, namely the ethanol plant in Balsas, Maranhão, which absorbed an additional 1.2 mln tons in the second crop. Now, corn shipments are beginning to increase via Barcarena (Pará) and São Luís (Maranhão). Competition between regional demand, exports, and demand from the Northeast are providing some support for prices at this time. Bahia and Tocantins, meanwhile, have relatively stable prices, still awaiting the arrival of the crop in Sergipe, Alagoas, and Southeast Bahia (Sealba). Offers in the region are at BRL 70 for October in Sergipe.

Therefore, the domestic corn market appears to be adjusted, with producers conducting slow sales and awaiting better price movements. We continue to focus on export flows, as a key variable in determining carryover stocks and the potential for end-of-year sales pressures to free up space for the 2026 crop. Exports reached 7.52 mln tons in August, a good number for the period. September now has 7.4 mln tons scheduled for shipment, also a good number. Both months exceed the 2024 shipment data at this period. Therefore, we can say that exports are off to a good start.

However, we still have the final quarter—November, December, and January—to reach the 42 mln tons projected for the year. To date, 21.4 mln tons have been committed to exports, leaving 20 mln tons to reach the year’s target. To achieve this, Brazil will need to ship 5 mln tons per month between October and January. Is this possible? Without a doubt, but internal retention, without a price increase at the port, could hinder sales for trading companies focused on the last quarter of the business year.

Let us remember that in 2024, the dollar soared and reached BRL 6.30 in December. The port price jumped from BRL 65 to 82 in December. Naturally, this greatly facilitated the flow of exports and improved prices in the interior. At this point, in 2025, with the current interest rate and the falling dollar abroad, it still seems quite unlikely that the same factor from 2024 will offer the same performance for corn at the end of 2025. The risk? A mismatch between port and interior prices, neutralizing export sales and compromising the volume to be shipped in the business year.

Meanwhile, the summer crop planting begins, with better rainfall in the South and a strong focus on the weather in Rio Grande do Sul this year.

Tags: corn, Brazil, prices, shipments, Market, demand, exports