Brazil, US soybean exports to Middle East may dip amid ongoing conflict

“The overall volume is very small. But a long term war will impact some shipments over the next few weeks at least,” a trader based in the US said.

The escalation in the Middle East conflict following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on March 1 has raised fears of shipping disruptions, which will likely impact freight rates and support maritime risk premiums for key metals and agricultural supplies.

Iran and Israel are not major players in global agricultural and metals markets, but their proximity to key sea routes has created uncertainty for buyers and suppliers.

Shipments in transit around the area are likely to be delayed over the next few weeks, an exporter based in Brazil said.

In 2025, Iran imported 1.4 million mt of soybean from Brazil, down 25.3% year over year, according to data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade. Brazil also exported 675,091 mt of soybean to Iraq in 2025, up 11.7% year over year, the data showed.

Apart from soybean, Brazil also sold 581,478 mt of soybean meal in 2025 to Iran, compared against 2.13 million mt in the previous year, according to the data. Brazil also exported 53,615 mt soybean meal to Saudi Arabia, down 75.9% year over year and 48,571 mt to Iraq, down 6.9% year over year, the data showed.

The US exported 144,000 mt of soybean to Saudi Arabia in marketing year 2024-25 (September-August), against 181,900 mt in the previous year, according to US Department of Agriculture data. The US also exported 140,000 mt of soybean to Iraq in MY 2024-25, compared to nil exports in the previous year.

Trade route concern

Some market participants based in Brazil are, however, concerned that any persisting tensions in the Middle East could impact some shipments passing through the region.

“Some ships follow the route close to the region. Shipments along the area could be delayed and future shipments may need to be rerouted,” an exporter based in Brazil said.

Brazil exported 1.5 million mt of soybean to Pakistan in 2025, down 17.9% year over year, according to Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade data.

Shippers could make strategic rerouting of ships, “tightening tonnage availability, extending voyage durations, and materially altering voyage economics and regional arbitrage flows,” Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping and metals at S&P Global Energy, said.

Currently, 260,900 mt of Brazilian soybean are in transit to the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. According to CAS, 22,100 mt of soybean from the US are en route to Saudi Arabia.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $428.73/mt on Feb. 27, down 27 cents day over day. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $468.76/mt on Feb. 27, up $2.67/mt day over day.