Brazil trade surplus tops forecasts on beef, soy exports

Brazil posted a higher-than-expected trade surplus in September, according to official data on Monday, as the government raised its forecast for the full-year positive balance.

Latin America’s largest economy recorded a trade surplus of $2.99 billion in September, beating the $2.65 billion.

The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services raised its 2025 trade surplus forecast to $60.9 billion from $50.4 billion, citing a drop in projected imports, to $284 billion from $291.5 billion.

At the same time, 2025 expected exports were revised up slightly, to $344.9 billion from $341.9 billion.

In September, the trade balance continued to reflect trends seen throughout the year, with imports growing amid a still-resilient economy, despite high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation.

Imports surged 17.7% last month from a year earlier to $27.5 billion, while exports rose 7.2% to $30.5 billion, driven by higher shipments of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans, corn, coffee and beef.

In the second month of steeper US tariffs on most Brazilian goods – and the first full month under the measure – Brazil’s exports to the US, its second-largest individual trading partner, fell 20.3% from a year earlier to $2.6 billion.

By contrast, exports to top trading partner China rose 14.7%, while shipments to Argentina and Mexico increased 24.9% and 9.1%, respectively.

Washington raised tariffs on US imports of most Brazilian goods to 50% from 10% in early August, citing what US President Donald Trump called a “witch hunt” against far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally who was later sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for attempting a coup after his 2022 election defeat.

Trump spoke by phone with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday, during which Lula urged him to lift the 40% tariffs that took effect in August, as well as US sanctions targeting Brazilian officials.

Tags: Brazil, soybeans, Beef, forecast, imports, coffee, crude oil, trade surplus, iron ore, exports, corn