Brazil to overtake Canada as the world’s third-largest pork exporter in 2025

Brazil is set to become the world’s third-largest exporter of pork in 2025, surpassing Canada. The projection comes from the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), which expects a 10% increase in export volumes this year.

From January to October 2025, Brazilian pork exports rose 12.9% in volume and 22% in revenue, according to ABPA president Ricardo Santin. Even with a further decline of around 30% in Chinese imports for the second consecutive year, Brazil has expanded its presence in fast-growing markets.

Santin highlighted Japan (+25%), Vietnam (+24%), Mexico and particularly the Philippines, which currently leads as the main destination for Brazilian pork.

Based on preliminary government trade data (Siscomex), November is expected to close at around 120,000 tonnes and with a revenue of approximately US$300 million. As a result, total exports from January to November are expected to reach 1.37 to 1.38 million tonnes, representing an increase of approximately 11% compared to 2024.

ABPA also forecasts production of up to 5.55 million tonnes this year, rising to 5.7 million tonnes in 2026, a projected growth of 2.7%.

Brazil’s advance is driven by a combination of domestic competitiveness and shifts in the global market. A stronger exchange rate and lower feed costs are enabling producers to work with comfortable margins, while abundant grain supply — supported by strong harvests — helps keep production expanding.

The external environment is also favourable. The United States is redirecting a greater share of its output to domestic consumption and has seen exports fall 3.5%.

Meanwhile, Europe is facing significant impacts from African Swine Fever in wild boar populations across various countries. In Spain, 8 facilities have already been shut down in Catalonia. The Philippines is facing a new wave of the disease and has jumped import demand.

In parallel, there is the possibility of new Chinese sanitary approvals for Brazilian pork offal, which could open further opportunities in one of the world’s largest markets.

Canada, which had initially forecast exports of 1.45 million tonnes in 2025, has revised expectations down to 1.3–1.35 million tonnes. Brazil, moving in the opposite direction, is expected to reach 1.49 million tonnes this year — up 10%. Should the figures be confirmed, Brazil would take third place in the global export ranking.

Despite stronger export growth, domestic supply is also expected to rise to 4.06 million tonnes in 2025 (+2.7%). Per capita consumption may grow to 19 kg per year. ABPA notes that production costs have become more predictable, with maize and soy prices at stable levels. These are factors that continue to support the competitiveness of Brazilian exports.

Tags: Production, forecast, imports, export, pork, Brazil, Canada