Brazil strengthens global soybean leadership amid US-China trade tensions

Brazil continues to cement its position as the world’s leading soybean supplier in the 2025/26 season, setting new records in both production and exports. As the harvest nears completion, the country is achieving unprecedented shares in the global balance, reinforcing its dominance in international trade.

According to analysts, Brazil’s soybean production is expected to reach 182 million tons in 2025/26, accounting for a record 42.2% of global output. A decade ago, the country’s share stood at just over 30%. Exports are also projected at a record level of around 112 million tons, representing 59.2% of global soybean trade.

This growth has been driven by an expansion in planted area, which has reached nearly 50 million hectares, as well as strong demand from China. Additional support comes from the domestic market, particularly the biodiesel sector, which continues to boost soybean processing and overall demand.

At the same time, the United States is gradually losing market share, although it remains a key global player. In 2025/26, U.S. soybean production is estimated at 116 million tons, or 26.9% of global output, down from 33.8% ten years ago. Exports are projected at 42.9 million tons, or 22.6% of the global market.

Brazil’s rising dominance is closely linked to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have reshaped global soybean trade flows. As the world’s largest importer, China has increasingly shifted toward Brazilian supplies, supporting the country’s export growth.

These structural changes are also reflected in pricing dynamics. The gap between Brazilian and U.S. soybean prices has widened: as of March 24, Brazilian soybeans FOB Santos were priced at about $431/ton (+6.5% year-on-year), while U.S. soybeans FOB New Orleans stood at $456/ton (+13.8% year-on-year), highlighting a growing divergence between the two markets.

Tags: prices, soybean