Brazil: Pig farming: prices found no room for highs in October

October was a challenging month for Brazilian pig farming. Wholesale pork cuts faced difficulties in price highs by the industry, which directly impacted live pig prices. Pork, the third most preferred meat among Brazilian households—after beef and chicken—needs to maintain competitive retail prices to ensure good demand. When prices rise, consumers tend to switch to more affordable options, such as chicken and eggs. If the population’s income increases consistently, the tendency is for a direct shift from chicken to beef, if pork prices are high.

In August, wholesale pork cut prices rose aggressively: the pork carcass traded in the South-Central region increased by almost 15%, while live pigs advanced just over 12%. These levels remained until mid-September, when the industry began to face difficulties in passing on the highs, pressuring margins and intensifying negotiations with producers. Even so, the supply of animals remained under control, supporting prices. On October 30, the average price per kilogram of live

pig in the region was BRL 7.89, below the BRL 7.97 registered at the end of September. The average price per kilogram of carcass, on the other hand, fell from BRL 12.61 a month ago to the current BRL 12.38.

The availability of pork is tight, mainly due to robust exports, driven by purchases from the Philippines, which have intensified recently. The total volume shipped by Brazil in September was a monthly record, reaching nearly 150,000 tons, and October is expected to exceed 140,000 tons, according to the latest average released by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).

The beginning of November brings positive signs. The influx of salaries into the economy, the payment of the 13th-month bonus, and the proximity of the year-end holidays—a period traditionally marked by increased consumption of pork—should boost domestic demand. This could favor price recovery and improve market balance.

Despite the positive outlook for the end of 2025, the first quarter of 2026 may bring challenges. Reduced consumption tends to occur due to rising household expenses, such as the payment of property and vehicle taxes, school supplies, in addition to high temperatures that negatively impact meat consumption. Inflation, although decelerating, remains at a high level, which hinders consumption recovery. Government aid income measures may stimulate consumption in the short term, but without national productivity growth, they may generate future inflationary pressures. Furthermore, high interest rates restrict investments and increase default rates among households and businesses.

Given this scenario, maintaining a robust flow of exports will be essential to sustain the Brazilian pork industry. Cost control will also be crucial, especially regarding the prices of corn, soybeans, and soymeal. The dollar progress and climatic conditions for the next crops should be closely monitored, as they directly influence the sector’s competitiveness.

The Brazilian chicken industry is about to end a challenging year, however, the overall result can be described as positive. The first occurrence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the country resulted in difficulties in exports. The sector’s recovery effort was exemplary; the vast majority of markets that had banned Brazilian purchases have already resumed them, except for China.

Chicken volume in September and the preliminary results for October leave the market optimistic for the coming few months. With the resumption of Chinese purchases, the market will likely experience higher shipments compared to the period preceding the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak.

In the domestic market, what is evident is the preference of the overwhelming majority of the Brazilian population for more affordable proteins, which is understandable given the low purchasing power of the average Brazilian, especially among households with incomes of one to two minimum wages.

Animal nutrition costs were controlled for much of the year, with corn and soymeal readily available this season. The outlook for 2026 is for higher grain production compared to the current season, which once again suggests controlled costs.

The scenario is encouraging, considering the full resumption of exports in the next season, coupled with a market prone to consumption, in line with the prospect of lower domestic beef availability. Once again, the Brazilian population will opt for a shift in consumption toward lower-priced proteins.

Tags: pork, Brazil, prices, Beef, chicken, consumption, live pig, pig farming, eggs