Brazil lowers soybean crop forecast

Brazilian consultancy AgRural has lowered its forecast for Brazil’s gross soybean harvest in 2024/25 due to worsening crop prospects in the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul. Moisture deficits persist in these states.

According to the revised forecast, Brazil will harvest 168.2 million tons of soybeans this season, down from January’s forecast of 171 million tons.

AgRural estimates that by Feb. 20, the soybean crop had been harvested from 39% of planted acreage, up 16 percentage points from a week earlier and roughly in line with last year’s harvest (40%)

“Warmer temperatures, less frequent rains and the need to plant corn in the perfect window gave a strong boost to the soybean harvest in central-western Brazil,” AgRural said in a report.

Delayed soybean harvest usually affects the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, which is grown in the same fields.

According to AgRural, by Feb. 20, seeding of second-crop 2025 corn was 64% of the planned area, up significantly from a week ago (36%) but down from last year (73%).

Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean exports in the first three weeks of February are 29% lower than the daily average compared to the same month last year and amounted to 246,500 metric tons per day, official data showed on Monday.

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans.

According to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), the total volume of soybean shipments since the beginning of February reached 3.7 million tons, while for the whole of February last year, soybean shipments amounted to 6.6 million tons.

Tags: Brazil, soybean