Brazil expected to set new record soybean crop amid acreage expansion

New adjustments to soybean projections point to a new crop production of around 180.9 mln tons. The revisions were minor, and, of course, only planting and harvest will truly confirm the planted area and productivity. Even so, the expectation remains for a larger area, but not as aggressive as in previous years, especially since costs are higher and financing difficulties may limit the use of technology.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the bet is on a recovery, with a full crop, but without an increase in area—relying only on regular weather. In other states, productivity may remain more modest, but with the national area growing by around 1.2%, production is likely to rise again. In the Midwest region, no major increases in area are expected, but production prospects remain good. Mato Grosso do Sul, for example, is expected to recover from losses in 2025, while Mato Grosso is expected to expand its acreage, albeit with less use of technology, which could slightly reduce productivity—while still maintaining a significant crop. In the Northeast, acreage expansion is expected, combined with good yields.

Adjustments were also made to the supply and demand scenario. Besides revisions to the 2025 crop and expectations for 2026, the main changes occurred in crushing and exports. As the China-USA relationship is still unclear, and the Chinese remain reluctant to buy large amounts of US soybeans, while Brazilian shipping commitments remain strong, we have increased our export projections to 105 mln tons. Crushing is expected to reach nearly 58 mln tons in 2025.

This movement removes approximately 2 mln tons from the balance, slightly tightening Brazilian soybean stockpiles compared to the previous scenario. Even so, the country is expected to maintain fairly high carryover stocks from 2025 to 2026, much higher than last season’s. For the new crop, a strong crush is also expected, which will partially reduce projected stocks, but without crop failures, Brazil could end 2026 with even larger stocks.

Tags: Brazil, soybeans, Production, crop, USA, China, export