Brazil: Despite losses, the scenario in the Midwest and Northeast favors a big soybean crop in 2025

The new production scenario for the Brazilian soybean crop presents a positive revision, with an estimated potential of 174.875 mln tons, accounting for an increase over the previous figure. The scenario reflects a balance between the significant losses in the South (especially in Rio Grande do Sul) and in parts of the Midwest (Mato Grosso do Sul) and the high yield observed in practically all states in the Midwest and Northeast, which have offset adverse weather conditions.

In the case of Rio Grande do Sul, a crop of around 23.738 mln tons was initially projected. However, high temperatures and prolonged drought, with scattered rain in January, resulted in a revision to 19.8 mln tons, down 15.2%. Losses were concentrated mainly in the west of the state.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, there was a negative adjustment of around 11%. The initial estimate of 15.5 mln tons was revised to 13.8 mln, reflecting the impacts of adverse weather conditions in the south of the state. However, areas with favorable yields, boosted by recent rains, helped to limit the damage.

On the other hand, Mato Grosso, the country’s main growing state, brought positive surprises. Despite heavy rain that delayed the advance of farm machines at harvest, high yields are expected, with many areas registering averages of 70 to 80 bags per hectare. This led to a positive revision in the state, with an estimated average yield of 67.5 bags per hectare and the production of 50.8 mln tons, marking a major recovery compared to the last crop’s losses.

In addition to Mato Grosso, other states in the Midwest, such as Goiás and Minas Gerais, as well as the states in the Northeast, also showed excellent results. Overall, the Brazilian soybean crop not only achieved record production but also demonstrated great scope and resilience, reflecting the strength of Brazilian agribusiness and the ongoing investments in technology, management, and production techniques.

There were no major adjustments to the supply and demand scenario. Expected crushing and export levels remained virtually unchanged. The main adjustment was the expected increase in Brazilian final stocks, now estimated at 10.9 mln tons. If confirmed, these stocks will be almost six times larger than those of the previous season, which were very tight.

Tags: yield, stocks, heavy rain, estimate, weather conditions, export, Brazil, soybeans, Production, drought, crop