Brazil bolsters soy market position despite Argentina’s competition

On May 21, 2025, Brazil remains a global leader in soybean production and exports, but a record harvest and rising supply from Argentina are creating new challenges. According to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), the 2024/25 season is expected to yield a record 168.3 mln tons of soybeans, with strong demand from China driving growth in grain and soy by-product exports. Total grain exports are projected to rise by 7.2%, reaching 105.9 mln tons.

Despite optimistic forecasts, soybean trade in Brazil has slowed due to a mismatch between buyers’ price expectations and suppliers’ offers, as reported by agribusiness outlet Globo Rural. Researchers from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) note that buyers are cautious due to falling international prices and lower export premiums in Brazil. This is compounded by a record domestic supply and increasing availability of soybeans from Argentina, reducing the export appeal of Brazilian products.

In April 2025, Brazil exported 15.27 mln tons of soybeans, a 4.2% increase from March and 4.2% higher than April 2024, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). This volume marks the third-largest monthly soybean export in the country’s history, trailing only June 2023 (15.58 mln tons) and April 2021 (16.11 mln tons). However, shipments to China, the top buyer, dropped by 3% from March, raising concerns among traders.

Despite these challenges, Brazilian traders remain optimistic, buoyed by April’s strong export performance and expectations of rising global demand. Conab forecasts a 2.2% increase in exports of soybean meal and oil, reaching 23.6 mln tons and 1.4 mln tons, respectively. The record harvest will boost soybean stocks to 2.9 mln tons by the end of the 2024/25 season, more than tripling the 758.2 thousand tons from the previous season.

Competition from Argentina, which is ramping up soybean production after reducing corn planting due to diseases, adds pressure to the Brazilian market. An 8% increase in Argentina’s planted area and favorable weather could lead to a stable harvest, impacting global prices. Nevertheless, Brazil maintains an edge with a favorable real exchange rate and steady demand from China, which accounts for about 60% of global soybean imports.

Projections for the 2024/25 season suggest Brazil will further strengthen its position in the global soybean market, though falling prices due to oversupply may limit farmers’ profits. Government initiatives to support logistics and exports will be crucial to maintaining the country’s competitiveness amid growing rivalry.

Tags: export, Brazil, soybean, Argentina, crop forecast