Blockade of Ukrainian ports could cost Ukraine 0.6-0.9% of GDP

Estimates of the potential negative impact of the blockade of the Greater Odesa ports on Ukraine’s GDP range from 0.6% to 0.9%, according to Mariia Repko, Deputy Executive Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), speaking during the discussion “What will Ukraine’s economy look like by the end of 2026? A review of forecasts.”

According to Repko, the shipping blockade primarily reduces exports, to a lesser extent imports, and also decreases foreign currency inflows into the country.

“The accumulation of agricultural stocks that must be sold or stored, falling export prices, the possible shutdown of some agricultural enterprises, shrinking margins, and the depletion of working capital could even result in the loss of export markets. For Ukraine, as an exporting country, this would be a very unfavorable scenario,” Repko said.

She added that possible solutions include military measures to stop Russian attacks, reaching a new UN-backed grain corridor agreement, redirecting exports to overland logistics routes, and using Romania’s grain transshipment infrastructure.

Tags: GDP, Ukraine, Ukrainian ports