Black Sea winter wheat crop recovers

Black Sea winter wheat prospects have improved after a shaky start, says an analyst.

Argus Media is forecasting 84.87 million tonnes of Russian wheat production in 2025-26, a 4.4 per cent increase over last year. The forecast does not include production in the disputed territory of Crimea.

The forecast was initially looking grim following the firm’s mid-March crop tour.

“Insufficient rainfall was recorded in all winter wheat production regions in Russia,” Jade Delafraye, global editorial manager of agriculture for Argus Media, said in a recent podcast.

However, the rain materialized following the survey, leading to a recovery in soil moisture levels and an easing of supply concerns.

Plants emerged from dormancy in good shape despite developmental delays in November.

“That is quite an unusual improvement for this time of year,” she said.

Planted area is lower than last year. Yields are forecast to be slightly below trend line, but quite a bit above last year.

Ukraine’s production is also expected to rise to 23.68 million tonnes, a 6.2 per cent improvement over last year.

That is due to an increase in acres because yields are expected to be the same as last year.

Crop conditions have improved since November in the centre and east of the country but have regressed in the west. Conditions in the south are good.

Romania’s vegetative density is well above the 10-year average.

“That is also confirmed in the feedback that we received from local farmers, which is that they estimate the current winter crop conditions as some of the best on record,” said Delafraye.

“On the whole, our assessment for crop conditions this year is one of the highest since the start of Argus crop tours in Romania.”

Argus is forecasting a record 11.54 million tonnes of production in 2025-26, a 13.9 percent improvement over last year.

Demand prospects for Black Sea wheat are expected to be strong in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Many countries in those regions had bumper crops in 2023-24 and 2024-25, reducing import demand.

That is not expected to be the case in 2025-26. For example, Pakistan is forecast to harvest 27.8 million tonnes of the crop, down from 31.1 million tonnes last year.

The same goes for Iran, Turkey and Iraq.

Carryout supplies are also expected to be smaller than previous years.

“That should leave quite a bit of room for import demand, which is forecast at 57.8 million tonnes for all these countries combined,” said Delafraye.

That would be up substantially from the estimated 47.8 million tonnes that will be imported in the current campaign.

Russia will be entering the new crop year with minimal carryout. Exports were brisk in the first half of 2024-25 but have slowed in the second half.

The amount remaining for export is about half of what it was the same time last year, she said.

Russia’s dwindling supplies have supported domestic prices, along with export quotas and a strengthening ruble against the U.S. dollar.

That is why Russia’s prices have been rising, while global wheat futures are falling.

Delafraye said it is too early to talk about the size of Ukraine’s corn crop, but planted area is expected to be higher.

The company will be conducting a crop tour in August to see how the corn is faring.

Ukraine produced 23.9 million tonnes of the crop in 2024-25, the smallest harvest since 2015-16.

“That was largely because of record high temperatures last July and also insufficient rainfall,” she said.

Corn prices in Ukraine have risen to the point where they recently matched the price of French milling wheat.

Ukraine’s corn exports have been well below the five-year average, but they are well ahead of what is needed to meet the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 22 million tonne estimate for 2024-25.

Argus is forecasting an even lower 19 million tonnes of exports.

“Ukraine’s exports will have to slow down sharply between now and the end of the marketing year,” said Delafraye.

There were only six million tonnes left for export as of the end of March, which is historically low.

The European Union typically obtains 95 to 100 per cent of its corn imports from Ukraine. However, the U.S. is undercutting Ukrainian corn in that market in 2024-25 and has accounted 16 per cent of imports to date.

Tags: winter wheat, Production, yields, forecast, Black Sea, demand, Ukraine, exports, corn, Romania, prices