Black Sea new corn crop prices expected to remain low amid better harvest outlook

Black Sea corn prices are expected to remain subdued as the region prepares for what could be a better harvest, with production estimates significantly exceeding last year’s drought-affected levels across key exporting countries, market sources said.

The optimistic outlook stems from favorable planting conditions and expanded acreage across the region’s major corn producers. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts, Romania’s corn production is projected to reach 11.4 million mt for the marketing year 2025-26, a 76% increase from the drought-impacted 6.46 million mt harvested in MY 2024-25.

Bulgaria is expected to produce 3.3 million mt, more than doubling from 1.6 million mt, while Ukraine’s production is estimated at 31 million mt, up from 25 million mt.

“The planting for corn is completed, and the area is the same as in previous years,” a representative from the Serbian Grain Association said. “We expect a higher yield and production than last year.”

The anticipated supply surge has already begun weighing on forward prices, with new crop Ukrainian corn offers emerging at $216/mt FOB POC, creating a substantial discount of $15-$20/mt compared to old crop prices that Platts assessed at $236/mt FOB POC for July 7-21 loading as of June 9.

The new crop is set to reach markets by early October, with traders at the Balkans and Black Sea conference held in Istanbul on June 2 expressing optimism about higher yields and increased supply. For corn flowing from the Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) port complex serving Romania and Bulgaria, offers stood at $215/mt with bids at $212/mt for October-November loading.

The price differential has already begun reshaping trading patterns, with buyers delaying purchases in anticipation of cheaper new crop supplies.

“Old crop corn is dead in CVB, and the new crop has become very active,” a Romanian market participant said, highlighting that the forward demand has shifted entirely to the upcoming harvest.

The old crop market has been relegated primarily to spot transactions rather than forward contracts, with Platts assessing Ukrainian corn FOB CVB at $239/mt for loading between July 7 and 21 as of June 9.

However, some traders remain cautious as it is too early in the growing season. “At this point last year, everything was normal, and then the heatwave struck, which destroyed the crop,” a Bulgarian trader said.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, corn, Turkey, Romania, prices, Black Sea region