Black Sea export disruptions push global grain and oilseed prices higher — IGC

Global grain production in 2026/27 is forecast at 2.42 bln tons, down 3% from the previous season’s record. However, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its estimate by 4 mln tons from August.

Production is expected to decline in Oceania, Europe and the Americas, while harvests may increase in North Africa and the Middle East. Global grain trade is forecast at 451 mln tons, down from 467 mln tons a year earlier.

IGC said severe disruptions to Black Sea exports are keeping global wheat flows unusually slow. At the same time, forecasts for wheat and corn production, trade and consumption were little changed from the previous month but remain below last year’s record levels.

Against this backdrop, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) rose by 6% from the August report and is nearly 20% higher y/y. Wheat and soybean prices are each up around 23% from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, global soybean production is forecast at a record 440 mln tons, with trade at 191 mln tons and consumption at 445 mln tons. Rice production could fall by 2% to 536 mln tons, which would mark the first annual decline in more than a decade.

Tags: IGC, prices, oilseeds, grain market, Black Sea, logistics, global market