Big global wheat crop expected to pressure prices

There will be plenty of wheat in the world in 2025-26, say analysts.

“As we enter mid-year Northern Hemisphere harvest, a larger-than-expected crop is expected to limit the upside in global wheat prices,” Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in his recent Agri Commodity Weekly Alert.

The bank expects global wheat stocks to climb to 271 million tonnes at the end of 2025-26, from 264 million tonnes at the end of 2024-25.

The trade is now forecasting Russia’s production at 83 to 85 million tonnes, up from earlier estimates of 78 to 79 million tonnes.

“Favourable conditions may push EU wheat production to over 138 million tonnes, compared to 122 million tonnes last year,” he said.

The European Commission is forecasting that EU wheat yields will be nine percent above last year and six percent above the five-year average.

Canada’s spring wheat prospects are also vastly improved after large portions of the Prairies received much-needed rainfall. Analysts think the rains added millions of tonnes of grain production to the region.

Erica Olson, market development and research manager with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said the growing season is progressing nicely south of the 49th parallel as well.

“Here in the U.S., we see generally a promising crop,” she said.

“But there are dry conditions out west.”

She agrees with Voznesenski’s assessment that the world should be well supplied with wheat.

“What we’ve been hearing is really no major concerns or alarm bells in any of the major wheat producing countries across the world,” said Olson.

“There’s really nothing on our radar to watch at the moment.”

Wheat demand was strong in 2024-25, especially for high protein, high quality wheat.

“I don’t expect that to disappear,” she said.

China was the one major exception, importing an estimated 20.68 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-25, less than half of the 48.11 million tonnes it bought the previous year.

However, the pendulum could be swinging back in that crucial market in 2025-26.

Retired U.S. Department of Agriculture economist Fred Gale noted in his Dim Sums blog that the Chinese government initially denied reports of poor crop conditions in that country.

However, Chinese agriculture minister Han Jun recently acknowledged that parts of Henan, the country’s largest wheat-producing province, had experienced sustained drought, although he insisted that efforts to ramp up irrigation reduced crop damage.

Gale noted in his blog that a report by futures market analysts reveals what the government seems reluctant to admit.

“They concluded that wheat yield this year declined between four to 15 per cent in most districts of Henan and Shandong, China’s two largest wheat-producing provinces,” he said.

Canada’s wheat farmers might be benefitting from China’s woes.

China was the top importer of Canadian wheat in April, buying 237,000 tonnes of the crop, according to the Wheat Market Outlook prepared for the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission by Mercantile Consulting Venture.

“After a very slow start, exports to China have risen to more normal monthly volumes,” stated Mercantile.

“However, total (August-April) exports to China are now 1.2 million tonnes, just 45 per cent of last year’s volume to date.”

Tags: demand, harvest, Production, wheat, yields, crop, stocks