Barley prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to strong export demand at the beginning of the season

Export demand for feed barley in Ukraine is increasing, and many companies are seeking to purchase large volumes for delivery in July, which is leading to a rapid increase in prices at ports.

During the week, export prices for barley in Ukraine increased by another 250-300 UAH/t to 9700-9800 UAH/t or $203-205/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and traders who sold large batches to China are ready to pay an even higher price for fast deliveries.

It is worth considering that farmers are holding back sales against the background of data on low barley yields in the south (at the level of 1-2 t/ha), although the first threshing data in the central regions show winter barley yields at the level of 5-7 t/ha. Therefore, in the western regions, the yield will be even better, and the harvest forecast in Ukraine will be no lower than 4.5-5 million t.

Farmers need to consider that traders are already paying prices higher than contract prices and may adjust prices downward as deals are executed, especially with the rainfall expected this week improving the potential for corn and spring barley harvests.

It is also worth considering the forecasts of an increase in the barley harvest in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, which will increase competition with Ukrainian barley starting in August – September.

According to forecasts by Russian agencies SovEcon and ProZerno, the barley harvest in the Russian Federation in 2025 will be 17.4-17.7 million tons compared to 16.7 million tons last year (FAS USDA estimates it at 18 million tons compared to 16.25 million tons last year).

In Kazakhstan, the barley harvest in 2025 is forecast at 3.5-3.8 million tons (3.8 million tons last year), which will exceed the 5-year average of 3.1 million tons.

Kazakhstan’s barley exports for the first 9 months of MY 2024/25 amounted to 1.83 million tons, which is twice as much as the corresponding figure for the previous season. Of these, 1.15 million tons were shipped to Iran, and 433.2 thousand tons to China.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices