Barley prices are on par with corn and wheat, and the market is preparing to fall

The Ukrainian barley market is showing unstable dynamics due to internal factors. According to the PUSK analytical center, barley exports as of January 17, 2025 amounted to almost 60 thousand tons, which indicates a certain recovery of the market. However, the situation remains tense due to sharp price fluctuations. It is reported by the VAR press service.

“Barley has jumped up in price, which can be explained primarily by the reduction of stocks and strong demand. Last week, its price was equal to the price of corn and feed wheat, which is atypical for the market,” PUSK analysts said. Usually, in such cases, there is an adjustment over a certain period of time: either corn and wheat become more expensive, leaving barley in place, or barley sinks down. Currently, analysts are inclined to the second option, as the global demand for barley remains weak.

“The global market does not show any serious dynamics of demand for barley. Italy and Spain conclude agreements for the supply of small batches of barley – 2-3 thousand tons. However, there is no real systematic work yet. At the same time, the domestic market is overheated, which may negatively affect the price dynamics in the coming weeks,” the experts add.

Another important factor is the significant reduction of barley stocks compared to last year. As of February 1, Ukraine is expected to have about 1.3-1.4 mln tons of barley, which is almost half of last season’s stocks, when they exceeded 3 mln tons. This increases the tension on the market as traders are forced to actively search for the product to fulfill contracts.

According to PUSK, once the major players complete their purchases, barley prices may drop by $10-15 per ton. The current average price in ports is $215-218 per ton, which is higher than the price of corn. However, the seasonal model predicts a price drop to $195-200 per ton.

Demand for the new harvest is also starting to take shape. The indication for regular barley for delivery in July-August is currently $180-185 per tonne on a CPT-port basis, while for malting barley, offers start at $170 per tonne on FCA elevator terms. This indicates the gradual formation of the future market, although buyers are not yet ready to actively contract large volumes.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, barley, prices, wheat