In its first report on the 2025-26 winter crop, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) projects production to decrease 8% year on year to 55.6 million tonnes, but, if realized, that would be the sixth highest on record and 13% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
The June Australian Crop Report forecast reflects expected improvements in production in South Australia and Victoria, despite ongoing dry conditions and a return to more normal conditions in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia after last year’s highs.
Wheat production is forecast to reach 30.6 million tonnes in 2025–26, down 10% from 2024-25 but 11% above the 10-year average with barley falling 3% to 12.8 million tonnes while staying 9% above the 10-year average. The canola harvest is projected to yield 5.7 million tonnes, down 6% but 19% above the 10-year average.
“Despite a year-on-year fall, winter crop production in 2025–26 is expected to remain above average, with most regions showing an increased likelihood of receiving average to above-average winter rainfall,” ABARES said. “However, with such a dry start in the southeast, and limited subsoil moisture, it will be crucial for forecast rainfall to be realized to meet current yield projections.”
The 2025–26 winter cropping season has been characterized by highly variable planting conditions across Australia’s major winter cropping regions, ABARES said, however, winter crops planted area is projected to remain historically high in 2025–26 at 24.9 million hectares.
Extremely dry conditions have persisted across southern New South Wales, western Victoria, South Australia and northern cropping regions in Western Australia, ABARES noted. By contrast, conditions have been very favorable in Queensland, northern New South Wales and southern Western Australia, reflecting above to very much above average early autumn rainfall.
For summer crops, sorghum production for 2024-25 is estimated to increase by 5% year on year to 2.3 million tonnes, 37% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. This production estimate is unchanged from the March 2025 Australian Crop Report with a downward revision in area offset by improved yields.
Rice production is estimated by ABARES to fall by 23% to 477,000 tonnes in 2024–25, revised upward from 444,000 tonnes in the March report. Area planted to rice is estimated to have fallen by 24%, while yields are estimated to be 9% above the 10-year average, reflecting generally favorable growing conditions in southern New South Wales.
Summer crop production in 2024–25 estimated to have increased by 2% to 4.8 million tonnes, 32% above the 10-year average.
