Australian GrainCorp forecasts profit decline in fiscal 2026

A global grain surplus and falling export margins to multi-year lows are putting pressure on the financial results of the Australian agribusiness giant.

Leading Australian agribusiness GrainCorp has released its financial forecast for 2026, warning investors of a significant profit decline. The main reasons cited are oversupply in the global grain market and low prices, which negatively affect export profitability.

Key Financial Expectations
According to the company’s official statement, the 2026 fiscal year results are expected to be significantly lower than in 2025:

• Underlying EBITDA: expected in the range of AUD 200–240 million (compared to AUD 308 million in FY2025).

• Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): forecast at AUD 20–50 million (compared to AUD 87 million last year).

Reasons for the Decline: Buyer’s Market and Farmer Caution
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway noted that record global grain production has created an oversupply that outpaces demand growth, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Despite a good harvest on Australia’s east coast, farmers are holding back sales, anticipating higher prices. This approach has reduced handling volumes and lowered margins for GrainCorp. The company expects grain intake volumes of 11–12 million tonnes (down from 13.3 million last year) and exports to fall to 5.5–6.5 million tonnes.

Segment Outlook

• Oilseed and Feed Processing: performance is expected to remain at 2025 levels.

• Agro-energy: a decline is anticipated due to uncertainty in US biofuel policy.

Market Reaction
The forecast triggered a sharp market reaction: GrainCorp shares on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) fell more than 15%, reaching a four-year low. In response to current challenges, company management announced accelerated cost optimization measures and enhanced operational discipline to maintain business resilience during the cyclical downturn.